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IN FOCUS OF THE RUSSIAN PRESS

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Kommersant: Ukraine: Time to discard Russia's 'imperial ambitions' rhetoric; Vedomosti, Gazeta.ru: Russia and Norway agree to delimit their Arctic border; Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Western analysts accuse China of secretly modernizing its nuclear arsenal; Gazeta.ru, Vremya Novostei: Russia to join WTO independently of Belarus and Kazakhstan; Gazeta.ru: Nearly 40% of Russian women admit to gender discrimination.

Kommersant: Ukraine: Time to discard Russia's 'imperial ambitions' rhetoric

The gas-for-fleet agreement Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych signed in Kharkiv is an uncontestable success of Russian diplomacy, quite comparable with the new START treaty. Therefore, it is extremely strange to hear an opinion that neither Russia nor Ukraine really needs the Black Sea Fleet stationed in Sevastopol, said Mikhail Margelov, head of the Federation Council's committee on foreign affairs.

This statement came as a surprise because the Black Sea basin is an important geopolitical hub linking the Caucasus, Turkey and the Balkans, the politician added.

This horror story of Russia's imperial ambitions often emerges in historical contexts, in discussion of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union; there are no modern examples of these "ambitions." So why don't they use Turkey to scare Ukraine, recalling the Ottoman Empire?

The point is that Turkish imperial policies sound as unreasonable as Russia's these days, Margelov said. However, it might be an idea to remind the Ukrainians of another historic agreement, the Peace Treaty of Kucuk Kainarji, which ended the Russo-Turkish war of 1768-1774. It assigned the Crimea to Russia, but with one proviso - if one day the peninsula changes hands, it has to be returned to Turkey. Incidentally, Sevastopol essentially hosts only the Russian Fleet, not Ukrainian.

Another widespread opinion is that Russia is paying too high a price for extending its lease of the naval base in Sevastopol, where its Black Sea Fleet is stationed. But effective long-term policies are always expensive, Margelov asserted. All the more so as Moscow does have an ambition to become a leader among post-Soviet countries. But leadership is different from hegemony, Margelov adds.

Also, the Kharkiv agreement has thwarted NATO's eastward expansion plans. Although the NATO leaders would not admit it, referring to the Russian-Ukrainian agreement as a bilateral act. But it is certainly hard to imagine a NATO member country with the Russian fleet stationed in it, Margelov concludes.

Vedomosti, Gazeta.ru: Russia and Norway agree to delimit their Arctic border

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has promised to allow foreign companies to develop offshore areas in the Arctic.

A preliminary deal between Russia and Norway envisages splitting roughly in half an area covering some 175,000 sq km (68,000 sq mi) of the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean.

Much of the disputed zone is located between Gazprom's huge Shtokman gas discovery and two oil and gas fields off Norway in which Norway's Statoil has stakes.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said at a news conference following his talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that the agreements, which concern the demarcation of borders, oil and gas exploration and fishing in the disputed region, satisfy both states. A final accord is due later this year, Stoltenberg said.

According to Russia's Ministry of Natural Resources, the zone contains 18% of contingent reserves of the Barents Sea, while its resources are estimated at 7.6 billion tons of oil equivalent.

Total recoverable hydrocarbon reserves of the Arctic continental shelf have been estimated at 83 billion tons of oil equivalent.

Delimitation of the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean will allow the two countries to set up a joint venture to develop mineral deposits there, Medvedev said. Under the Russian law on mineral reserves, only state-controlled companies can develop offshore deposits.

To allow foreigners to take part in offshore projects, Russia will have to change its legislation because such deposits are regarded as strategic, said Valery Nesterov, an analyst with investment company Troika Dialog.

So far, relevant decisions are being taken at the political level, said a Gazprom manager.

The idea of a joint venture is only a declaration of intent, Nesterov said.

Alexei Makarkin, deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, said Russia has begun "a new dialogue with the West, and the Kremlin would like to ease tensions in the economic sphere that do not have such a symbolic significance as, say, the Kuril Islands."

Norway needs new oil and gas resources as its core North Sea oilfields are gradually becoming depleted. Production there is expected to fall 6% in 2010. Norway is ready to start exploration in the Barents Sea and the Arctic in 2012-2013, said a representative of the Norwegian Oil Industry Association (OLF).

However, not all analysts think the resources in the disputed area are sufficiently large.

"Should we develop the offshore fields where production costs and labor intensity are much higher than at other fields in Russia?" asks Nesterov.

The agreement with Norway is very important because it concerns technologies rather than just reserves, said Ivan Glumov, head of Severneftegas, a Russian company set up to develop offshore Arctic deposits.

"Norway has surged far ahead regarding equipment for offshore production, which Russia does not have," Glumov said.

Jonathan Stern, a professor at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said the deal would probably not stoke "a massive additional energy bonanza" in the region because of the difficulties in tapping oil and gas from the deep Arctic waters.

It is a strong political gesture designed to show that Russia is ready "to improve relations with its European neighbors by settling outstanding border issues," Stern told Reuters.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Western analysts accuse China of secretly modernizing its nuclear arsenal

The signing of the new Russian-U.S. bilateral nuclear arms reduction treaty on April 8, 2010 raises the issue of China's motives for modernizing its nuclear forces.

On May 3-28, the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons will be held at UN Headquarters in New York.

Analysts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) predict that Beijing will probably reject calls to freeze its nuclear-weapons program and will support the demands of non-nuclear states for deeper U.S.-Russian strategic offensive arms cuts during the upcoming conference.

SIPRI Director Dr. Bates Gill says China is unlikely to take part in short-term or mid-term unilateral or multilateral nuclear-disarmament programs, and that Beijing would continue to modernize its nuclear arsenal.

Under the new START agreement, Russia and the United States will deploy a limit of 1,550 nuclear warheads each.

SIPRI estimates the number of deployed Chinese strategic warheads at 186. Still, Beijing claims that it will never be the first to use nuclear weapons.

Gill's report distorts Beijing's policy, said Gu Goliang, an arms-control analyst at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). He said China wants to maintain a strategic deterrent against the nuclear superpowers which were taking advantage of their superiority in order to interfere in its domestic affairs.

Beijing fears that the U.S. missile-defense program could render its nuclear arsenal obsolete. In an effort to counter its theoretical enemy, China is replacing liquid-propellant missiles with solid-propellant missiles and is building Jin-class ballistic-missile submarines, Reuters said.

The Chinese nuclear program remains classified at a time when other Nuclear Club members are divulging information about their respective arsenals, to varying degrees anyway. Published data on Beijing's nuclear arsenal is borrowed from Western intelligence-service reports. The Pentagon says this creates an atmosphere of unpredictability regarding the assessment of China's strategic plans.

Alexander Pikayev, director of the department of disarmament and conflict resolution at the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), said data on the state of China's nuclear forces is based on conjecture.

If China has less than 200 nuclear warheads, its potential is less than Israel's. However, a 500-warhead estimate seems more realistic, Pikayev told the paper.

"At any rate, China is currently building strategic ballistic missile submarines. U.S. satellites have detected two incomplete submarines with 12 launchers for missiles with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads," Pikayev said.

"The Chinese nuclear potential may increase by several hundred warheads, which is an alarming prospect. It would be in the interests of China to inform its negotiating partners about the state of its nuclear forces, as this would create the required atmosphere of trust," Pikayev said in conclusion.

Gazeta.ru, Vremya Novostei: Russia to join WTO independently of Belarus and Kazakhstan

Russia has decided to enter the World Trade Organization independently of its Customs Union partners, Belarus and Kazakhstan, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said in Washington.

Analysts see this as proof that the idea of joining the WTO as a group has failed.

The three countries announced their intention to join the WTO as a common customs territory in June 2009. By that time, Russia has been negotiating its entry for 16 years.

"The process is taking too long and has recently started looking like empty promises," President Dmitry Medvedev said.

In August 2009, Russian officials again changed their view, saying that the priority for Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was to join the WTO separately but "on equal conditions and simultaneously."

But now Russia again wants to join the organization alone and ahead of its Customs Union partners.

"Everyone would benefit if Russia joined the WTO before setting up a common market with Kazakhstan and Belarus," Shuvalov said in Washington before the next round of Russia's WTO accession talks.

By June 2009, Russia completed approximately 95% of the accession talks, while Kazakhstan only 70% and Belarus roughly 50%.

Analysts say this is a wise decision.

"We have been working for years to join the WTO separately, in accordance with legislation," said Alexei Portansky, a leading researcher at the Institute for Trade Policy of the Moscow Higher School of Economics. "We were very close to completing the accession talks last summer."

In his view, the new decision could help Russia attain its goal.

"In response to this decision, the United States has expressed readiness to facilitate Russia's entry," Portansky said. "The process will now proceed apace."

However, Washington's assistance could be limited. It may be willing to lift the Jackson-Vanik Amendment discriminating trade with Russia, but it will take a political decision by President Barack Obama to complete talks on all disputed issues. However, Obama's internal political standing is not sufficiently strong to boost relations with Russia.

In any case, the U.S. president is now busy encouraging the Congress to ratify the new START agreement he signed with President Medvedev in Prague.

Analysts say that Russia's early accession to the WTO is unlikely to benefit its Customs Union partners, although Russia as a WTO member could theoretically facilitate Kazakhstan and Belarus's accession talks.

"But Russia's voice is weaker than the voices of the United States or the EU," said Sergei Pukhov, a senior researcher at the Development Center of the Higher School of Economics.

Gazeta.ru: Nearly 40% of Russian women admit to gender discrimination

U.S. retail giant, Wal-Mart, is facing a multi-billion dollar class action lawsuit from over a million female employees who are suing for gender discrimination. The company, known for its hard line anti-union policy, will not give in easily. Discrimination lawsuits are something new to Russia, although women are often discriminated against, analysts say.

"Wal-Mart has it coming. This chain has always pursued a strongly anti-union, anti-employee policy," said Pyotr Bizyukov, who directs social and economic programs at the Centre for Social and Labor Rights. The company has heard warnings for years that it would eventually have to pay for its personnel policy. "On the other hand, opponents of trade unions have often cited Wal-Mart as a company with harsh working conditions, while no court can win a case against it," he added.

Russian employees have their rights abused as often as people in the United States. "There is gender discrimination, and age discrimination, and even sexual orientation issues," said Alexander Shershukov, secretary of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions. These groups are unprotected; they are often refused employment or are paid less or are not promoted often enough.

According to the Center's estimates, up to 40% of Russian women are discriminated against, Bizyukov said. But discrimination lawsuits are extremely rare. "I know of just a few discrimination cases, and cannot recall a single one involving gender discrimination against women," Shershukov said.

The courts do not see discrimination cases, agreed Bizyukov. "Discrimination is hard to prove. A court could force an employer to restore a woman to her job if she was fired unfairly, but would never define her case as 'discrimination'," he explained. Another reason for a limited number of lawsuits is the lack of legal awareness. "They know they are being abused, but they do not know that they can take the abuser to court," Shershukov added.

April 28, 2010 

RIA Novosti




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