FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ROSE REVOLUTION

SERGEI MARKEDONOV,
Head of the International Relations Department of the Institute for Policy and Military Analysis, Moscow
The main reason why the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution is not celebrated with a great pomp is that the Georgians are bitterly disappointed with the results of the revolution. In fact, nobody was going to carry out democratic reforms, although the ‘revolutionaries’ had set themselves this goal.
It would be wrong to say that Mikheil Saakashvili was a democratic leader at the beginning of his presidency. The Rose Revolution was not democratic, but national revolution aimed at making Georgia a strong state. This was a protest against the regime of former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and weak Georgia.
I do not agree that Mikheil Saakashvili and President Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine are democrats. Here I proceed from the expert rather than ideological point of view. The Ukrainian President has discredited the democratic procedure in his country more than anybody else.
Mikheil Saakashvili's government failed to implement reforms in Georgia, particularly in terms of the restoration of territorial integrity. This is one of the reasons for the authorities’ unwillingness to observe the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution. But the revolution itself is the main symbol that makes the current regime legitimate.
The Georgian opposition does not take active steps in view of the anniversary either. The opposition has no prominent leaders, it got bogged down in squabbles and in mutual suspiciousness. The Georgian supporters of Mikheil Saakashvili will make it possible for him to shatter the opposition’s accusations. What is more, the opposition’s anti-Russia rhetoric strongly resembles the President’s statements.
When, on 7 November 2007, the peaceful demonstration in Tbilisi had been broken up, the experts and intellectuals were disappointed with the Rose Revolution. The West has made a mistake considering the Georgian nationalism to be better than the Russian imperialism.
But now the West is disappointed rather in the ideals of the Rose Revolution.
I wonder whether the people will be disappointed in another thing - Mikheil Saakashvili’s ability to govern the country. For the time being, the former Soviet countries do not face the full scale of the financial and economic crisis. Georgia’s situation will be complicated by the combination of financial meltdown and consequences of the Russia-Georgia conflict.
November 25, 2008
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