JOHN MARONE, KYIV
WHAT COUNTS IN UKRAINE AFTER THE VOTE
With parties heir to Ukraine's Orange Revolution perched to retake full control of the country’s executive, Orange president Viktor Yushchenko is again demonstrating the kind of dubious indecision that cost them the government in the first place.
His one-time revolutionary sidekick, opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, was the real winner in the September 30 snap elections, earning enough votes to come back as premier.
But she cannot form a coalition government without the assistance of the president’s Our Ukraine-Self Defense Bloc (OUSD).
Tymoshenko’s Bloc (ByuT) got twice as many votes as OUSD, which had promised during its campaign to reestablish pro-Western Orange rule.
But the president again seems more concerned about Tymoshenko’s threat to his lagging popularity. In an address delivered last week as the Orange parties’ victory became imminent, Yushchenko called for cooperation between all five parties that made it into the Verkhovna Rada in the name of national unity.
"So my key message to these political forces is that they must start political talks to formulate basic rules of forming a majority in Ukraine's parliament and Ukraine's government and building relations between those political forces that represent government and opposition,” he told the nation.
The brunt of the president’s message, as was later clarified, is that the next government should include members of the outgoing majority, which Yushchenko and other Orange leaders demonized during the election campaign.
It was the “unconstitutional” actions of the Communists and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych’s Regions Party that forced Yushchenko to call early elections in the first place.
Together with the Socialists, who didn’t make it past the three-percent barrier this time, the eastern-oriented Regions and Communists had threatened to usurp the lion’s share of executive power from the president.
Faced with the prospect of being relegated to lighting the national Christmas tree, Yushchenko openly joined the Orange parties’ parallel campaign to oust the Yanukovych government, which it vigorously accused of corruption.
Now, the president is trying to pose as non-partisan peacemaker among warring factions.
"Holding consultations with the political leaders of the aforementioned and other parties, I am ready to act as guarantor of the fulfillment of all agreements that will be reached during their preliminary negotiations," he said last week.
The dish of double talk is made even harder to swallow by the fact that Yushchenko, and Yushchenko alone, was responsible for Yanukovych returning from the disgraceful defeat he suffered during the Orange Revolution to run the government.
In the March 2006, the Orange parties, including the Socialists, also had a chance to form a government. Instead, the president and members of his party procrastinated for months, holding coalition talks with his allies as well as the Regions simultaneously. The result of this double-dealing was that the Socialists defected to the Regions, forming a backward looking coalition that included the Communists as well.
Although the president has explained his past actions as an attempt at constructive cooperation with Regions, which got the largest number of seats in parliament in March 2006 and on Sunday, observers point to Yushchenko's fear of Tymoshenko's popular appeal.
Tymoshenko helped rally the crowds of Orange Revolution protesters to successfully challenge Yanukovych’s fraud–filled defeat of Yushchenko during the 2004 presidential race, yet Yushchenko fired her as his first premier in late 2005.
With the next presidential elections scheduled for 2009, Yushchenko again looks frightened of Ukraine’s femme fatale, despite his expressed concern for national unity.
"I want to call on my political colleagues not to be guided by personal visions and personal interests but to consolidate their cooperation around national priorities."
Members of the president’s team have dismissed suggestions that Yushchenko is planning on cutting a coalition deal with Regions and the Bloc of Volodymyr Lytvyn, a dark horse party that barely got past the three-percent barrier.
However, it wasn’t just wags and observers who read a shift in loyalties in the president’s words last week.
“Viktor Yanukovych supports the position of the president of Ukraine on the formation of a parliamentary coalition,” reads a statement from the Regions press service.
“It would be correct to unite the campaign programs of the political parties that got into parliament,” the statement continues.
A few days later, the Communists joined in on the farce, stating that they would consider taking a seat in the new government as well.
The leadership of OUSD and ByuT have continued to insist that they will not join a coalition with the Regions, despite the fact that an Orange coalition would only have a majority of two seats.
And some analysts have suggested that the president made the statements to gain leverage in coalition talks with ByuT.
That may be the case, but considering Yushchenko’s past success at such tactics, the fact that the ByuT got twice as many votes as the president on Sunday, and the complete absence of any reason to believe that the Regions wouldn’t again abuse any agreement made with their opponents, maybe Yushchenko should just agree to make Tymoshenko premier and stop fooling around.
Could it be that the president is hoping to hem in Tymoshenko’s ambitions by allowing her enemies into the government?
With such a thin Orange majority, and the country’s recent history of east-west deadlock, no one would deny that the Communists and Regions should be allowed some positions, such as deputy heads of parliamentary committees or oversight posts.
But no one should know better than Yushchenko about the dangers of sharing power with Yanukovych’s team, which has abused the Constitution in letter and spirit to consolidate its interests and promote those of its financial backers.
It’s the Region’s business wing, as opposed to the party’s anti-West rank and file, that some members of Yushchenko’s entourage would like to court.
Certainly, Donetsk’s powerful eastern industrialists will influence the country in or out of power.
But if Yushchenko is really interested in stability, he doesn’t have to buy it with state posts.
Donetsk industrialists also have something to gain from the Orange team’s pro-Western reforms, such as WTO membership and foreign investment.
But they cannot be allowed to further hamper liberal reforms. As far as the eastern electorate, Yushchenko has got to win their confidence and respect the hard way.
While Yanukovych has made a serious effort to win the West, learning Ukrainian and redefining himself as pro-business, Tymoshenko campaigned hard in the east, where she is from in the first place. But Yushchenko has preferred to play the spiritual leader to the Orange electorate while continuing to promise reform and traveling abroad.
If Yushchenko wants to improve his ratings in the south and east, he could give in on making Russian a second official language and demure on NATO entry. Sure, some in the West would be up in arms, but it would be a small price to pay for national unity.
On other issues, such as the country’s corrupt court system and its dangerous dependence on Russian gas, the president should play hardball.
Russia is again threatening Ukraine with higher gas prices with a definite political agenda, and, worst of all, it’s energy bullying is facilitated by certain members of the current government. This is the greatest threat to Ukraine, and Tymoshenko has promised to deal with it head on.
If Yushchenko can guarantee energy security and crack down on corruption, he may be able to hold on to his job in 2009. To do so, he doesn’t have to perpetuate his country’s east-west split or unnecessarily antagonize Russia. Nor should he be paranoid about Tymoshenko, who shines more in the opposition than in power. She and the president share many of the same policies. By implementing these policies, both politicians and the country as a whole stand to win. The president just needs to remember what counts.
John Marone, Kyiv Post Staff Journalist, Ukraine
October 8, 2007
|
