SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV

The meeting of Belarus-Russia Union Counsel of Ministers, which was held in the Belarusian city of Brest on March 16, surprised nobody and was a routine event. Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka was absent, so at the press-conference after the meeting it was Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin who looked like the host, while his Belarusian counterpart Siarhiej Sidorski resembled a guest.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

The customs duty on the Russian oil for Minsk is the issue of the Belarusian regime’s survival. That’s why Minsk reacts so sharply to Moscow’s unwillingness to supply over 5 million tons of oil without charging the duty.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The documents establishing the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia were signed on November 27, 2009 in Minsk by Aliaksandr Lukashenka, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Dmitry Medvedev.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

President of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s uncomplimentary words about the Russian-Belarusian relations and about Russian Premier Vladimir Putin personally have little to do with transformation of the CIS whose leaders will hold the summit in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau on October 9.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

Moscow has no other ways to maintain relations with Minsk but to support Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime. Despite the conflicts, neither side will raise the question of Belarus-Russia Union project termination. I believe the current leaders would not like to go down in history as destroyers of the Belarus-Russia Union.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

According to the public opinion polls, 90% of the Belarusians have considered Russia a friendly state. At present this figure can fall to 70%, this is the maximum, to which the national mass media criticism can lead.

VALERY KARBALEVICH

Europe concluded that its previous tactics (democratization demand, sanctions toward Belarus’ authorities, support for the opposition) were inefficient. Poland and Lithuania urged the EU to change its policy towards Minsk. Germany is also interested in development of economic relations with Belarus.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

Minsk’s probable participation in the EU’s foreign-policy program “Eastern Partnership” is evidence of serious changes in Belarus. Rapprochement between Brussels and Minsk and, in general, of Belarus and the West is connected with the liberalization processes in Belarus, first and foremost, in the economic sphere.

YURI PANASIK

The world financial crisis is a real challenge not only for Russia but also for the regional integration organizations and bilateral alliances in the former Soviet Union where Russia pretends to be the leader. This offers new opportunities as well as new challenges to Russia.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The policy followed by the Belarusian authorities during the financial and economic crisis confirms the axiom of the economic influence on the politics. In Belarus the economic situation exerts considerable influence upon the politics.

SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV

Minsk has recently supported the EU’s new foreign-policy program “Eastern Partnership” and has already confirmed its readiness to formalize the program jointly with the European Commission, said Andrey Popov, spokesman for the Belarusian Foreign Ministry.

VALERY KARBALEVICH

Several factors influenced the change of EU policy towards Belarus and the lifting of the sanctions for some Belarusian officials in the EU. But it is difficult to speak about the public opinion changes in view of the change in Europe-Belarus relations.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

There is no sense in attaching superfluous importance to the last election campaign in Belarus. Previous Parliament drafted only one bill on its own for four years. All its activities were reduced to the acceptance of the Cabinet and President’s initiatives.

PAVEL USOV

The main question, which has arisen before the Belarusian political elite, is with whom they should build relationships, with the East or with the West. The current political situation indicates that Belarus has reached a geopolitical impasse.

VALERY KARBALEVICH

The formal reason why the officials were fired is an explosion in Minsk on the Independence Day. It is clear that the explosion is just a pretext for such important reshuffles. If to proceed from the official version, it would be logical to sack the Head of the KGB and the Minister of the Interior. But that did not happen.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

Moscow’s main aim is to stop the parasitical relations with Lukashenka's regime without serious damage to the cooperation, and to establish friendly but, at the same time, pragmatic relations with the Belarusian state, which let the Kremlin keep Minsk in Russia’s sphere of influence.

BELARUSIAN INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES, NASHA NIVA WEEKLY, MINSK

Presidential elections in Russia have been an event of international importance. A succession scenario had been implemented, although the former President, Vladimir Putin, still controls power being the Prime-Minister and the leader of the largest faction in the State Duma. What does this mean for Belarus?

ALEKSEY MITROFANOV, KONSTANTIN SIMONOV

"I would like to mention three “agents” that can improve the situation with the Russian language in the post-Soviet space. Those include our government, NGOs and Russian companies", Konstantin Simonov.

ALIAKSANDR FIADUTA

Now there is nothing else left for the Belarusian opposition to do, but to organize the street processions. This form of political action is quite futile because it does not add electorate to the opposition.

ANDREY KAZAKEVICH

It is hard for Belarus to appeal to Europe as one of the potential affected parties in the gas conflict between Minsk and Moscow. Earlier this leverage could be effective, but now it is restricted and will not be decisive for the Russian company Gazprom.

VALERY FEDOROV, VLADIMIR PETUKHOV

Intricate integration processes are taking place in the former Soviet Union. And there is a danger that as time goes by and new generation grows up, it will become more and more difficult to solve the problems of reintegration in the post-Soviet space.

STANISLAV BELKOVSKY

Summing up the Russian foreign policy in the post-Soviet space in 2006, we should acknowledge that Russia has ceased to be a regional power.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The oil conflict showed the extreme weakness of the regulatory framework of the bilateral relations between Belarus and Russia, lack of legal culture, and powerful potential for conflicts development.

ALEKSANDER FADEEV

At present I would not say that Belarus’ lifting duties on the Russian oil transit to Europe gives evidence of a compromise between Moscow and Minsk.

OLEG MANAEV

The recent visit of Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka to Russia (December 15) shows that Moscow continues with its putting pressure on him. The main objective of the Kremlin officials is to strengthen Russia’s control over Belarus and its economy.

ANDREY KAZAKEVICH

Belarus-Russia Union State has never existed. Since 2002 the Union State bodies have not made any important decisions, they have not achieved any serious breakthroughs.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has concentrated all Belarusian diplomacy and Belarus’ foreign policy on Russia. For the last 10 years Minsk has conducted explicitly unilateral foreign policy in order to win Moscow’s favor.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

If Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbayev don’t want to be remembered as political leaders of the high oil prices epoch they will come forward with a CIS reform that would be equal to creating new organization with real obligations of all the parties.

LEONID VARDOMSKY

Russian leaders must comprehend interests and capabilities of the EAEC member-states and Russia itself, find mechanisms to accommodate these interests and introduce appropriate forms of cooperation.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The issue of Gazprom’s gas price increase for Belarus has found a lodgment in the agenda of the Belarusian-Russian relations. Still, serious tensions have not yet emerged.

ANDREY KAZAKEVICH

The fact, that right after the presidential elections in Belarus the Kremlin has stated that the gas prices will be raised for Minsk, is quite explainable.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

I believe that the myth of the Belarus-Russia Union is being destroyed, and the current scheme which was employed by Russia on drafting an agreement with Belarus about gas cooperation is nearing its end as well.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

If to judge about the Belarusian-Russian relations just by the crude figures of the Belarus’ trade balance, the two countries are definitely at a trade war.

OLEG MANAEV

I believe that Russia’s support for Aliaksandr Lukashenka at the presidential election is quite obvious.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

Regardless all Moscow and Minsk’s assurances about mutual understanding, progress and relationships improvement, the course of discussion and passing of the most important documents do show that the integration between Belarus and Russia remains on paper.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The decision to hold presidential elections on March 19, 2006 was not a surprise for the Belarusian opposition. It was one of the predictable case scenarios, which depended on the development of relations between Minsk and Moscow . Aliaksandr Lukashenka could not be luckier. Being an experienced politician, he turned gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine to his advantage.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The format of meetings is usually determined by two parties. Since Aliaksandr Milinkevich needs publicity (he needs to introduce himself, promote his team and his election program), it was definitely the Russian party, who had chosen not to advertise his visit. And it is logical. Firstly, it was the first high-level meeting of the Belarusian presidential candidate from democratic forces with the Russian policymakers.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

Lukashenka is aware of the fact that the Kremlin officials discuss various scenarios of Russia’s reaction to the upcoming political events in Belarus.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

Judging by the results, all the previous meetings of the Russian and Belarusian Presidents were formal rather than of fundamental importance.

IGOR MARKOV, VYACHESLAV SIDOROV

The discussion of prospects of creating the Belarus-Russia Union is one of the fundamental issues of the visit of Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka to Moscow. Now the integration issue is getting more and more important.

The case of Kurmanbek Bakiyev is consistent with the logic of the Belarusian authorities’ actions towards the plane crash near Smolensk. The decisions not to demonstrate the “Katyn” film and not to announce the mourning were made emotionally, to spite Moscow and Warsaw, without thinking about their consequences and about reaction of the society and the neighbouring countries.

While Russian and Belarusian officials were carrying on negotiations on the Russian oil prices, on which 50% of Belarus’ annual GDP depends, Minsk hosted the big hockey holiday. The local team of veterans with its unchallenged captain, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, played in a tournament to win the Belarusian President’s prize. Simultaneously, during the ceremony of granting awards to cultural workers, Aliaksandr Lukashenka delivered a long speech.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has declared that in the nearest future he will devote his time to combating the “Iron Curtain”. By the ‘curtain’ he means the isolation regime which has been established by the unfriendly states around Belarus. One can interpret the Belarusian President’s statement in two ways. It is either he yet again decided to make it hot for the screen and jalousie lovers or he wishes to “remake” his own enclosure.

The gas ultimatum issued by Moscow to Kyiv on the eve of the New Year 2006 signaled that the Kremlin decided to use its energy resources as a weapon in the looming geopolitical conflict. Then nobody believed in Russia’s speculations about the new market pricing policy. Ukraine had turned to the West and was to be punished for that – both the Russian political commentators and ordinary people saw it that way.

Russia wants to turn a newly minted Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan into its major vehicle for post-Soviet economic integration in Central Eurasia.

On June 3 the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) defense ministers met to consider intensifying military cooperation and formalizing the new rapid reaction forces.

As the Belarusian president arrives for talks on the price of Russian gas shipments in 2009, analysts in Minsk and Moscow alike say he is aware that he is headed to Russia hat in hand - and desperate for a sign of financial support from his powerful neighbor.

The Congress of Democratic Forces that took place in Minsk on 26-27 May 2007 had to answer whether the Belarusian opposition has any hope of becoming a credible political force capable of advancing democratic changes in the country...

The first law of petroleum-policy formulated by American researcher Thomas L. Friedman reads as follows: “The level of democracy is inversely proportional to oil prices”.

Minsk asks Moscow for support.

During the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka held in Moscow Russia and Belarus’ joining the WTO was discussed.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies publishes a report, prepared by Alexei Pikulik, Maxim Znak, Alexei Lashuk, Elena Rakov, Marina Roshina and Vitali Silitski, “Getting Belarus to the top 30 countries with the best business climate”. The study assesses the opportunities and proposes policies to ensure Belarus's entry in list of thirty countries with the most favorable conditions of doing business.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Pontis Foundation and The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies publishes a paper, prepared by Gleb Shymanovich, "Belarus external debt: Sustaining Levels in a Time of Global Crisis". The paper takes a close look at how Belarus´ foreign debt is structured and what potential impact it could have on the Belarusian economy in the upcoming period.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes the analytical report “Belarus: Shaping the Space for Change”, which reflects directions of panel discussions as well as conclusions made on their basis during the second annual international conference carried out in Kyiv, Ukraine, on 11-12 November 2008.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes an article written by the BISS director Vitali Silitski and Dzianis Meliantsou. The article focuses on the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Belarus.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the Belarus Brief "The End of ENP" on the post-election situation in Belarus against the background of Brussels’ departing from its previous “soft” policy approach towards Belarus, encapsulated in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP).

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes an article written by the BISS director Vitali Silitski. The article focuses on Belarus’ relations with Russia and the West.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes an article "Belarus' Relations with Ukraine and Lithuania Before and After the 2006 Presidential Elections", written by the BISS analyst Dzianis Melyantsou and Andrei Kazakevich, professor at the European Humanities University (Vilnius).

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the Belarus Brief  "Power Poker: An Examination into the Dynamics of the Current Relationship between Russia and Belarus" by Andrei Liakhovich, Center for Political Education, Minsk.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes synopsis of the international conference "Towards a New Vision of Belarus" which was held on September 10-12 in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the Belarus Brief "How the West continues to lose Belarus" on the current situation in Belarus and outlining possible scenarios for the 2007 year.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the survey on Belarus, entitled “Current Trends in Belarus Politics”. This survey deals with the leadership crisis within the United Democratic Forces (UDF), covers the preparation for the forthcoming local government elections in January 2007, gives insight on post-election developments of the regime and the democratic opposition after March 2006.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis entitled “State of the Union and the Union State”. In the light of the EU-Russia summit, the analysis offers a new look to the most important post-election development of Belarus.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Education entitled “Belarus after Election: The Naked Dictator”.  The analysis summaries the March events, draws conclusions from the reaction of authorities and the opposition and outlines the possible development for Belarus for the beginning of the third term of Alexander Lukashenka.

Eurasian Home  with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes “Belarus Brief: Soberness and Dilemmas”. The current situation shows that dilemmas with regard to where to go from here are being faced by all key actors – by the Belarusian regime, by the opposition and civil society, by Russia and by the European Union. This brief outlines these dilemmas, some lessons learned and possible future scenarios.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis of the Slovakia-Belarus Task Force “Belarus Before Election: David against Goliath” prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Education and commissioned by the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation’s Institute for Civic Diplomacy.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis entitled “The Fading Pillars of Power in Belarus: 100 days of Milinkevich”  prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Educationand commissioned by the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation’s Institute for Civic Diplomacy briefs about the first hundred days of the “single candidate” A.Milinkevich, elected by the Congress of Democratic Forces on Oct 2, 2005.

“Eurasian Home” with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis entitled "Potential of Change or Backsliding to Conformism: Future Trends of Belarus Politics" based on thirty-one interviews with Belarusian political and social scientists from state and non-governmental analytical centres on September 3-17, 2005. The survey discusses the most important external and internal factors in the mirror of the Belarusian analysts, while outlines possible future trends of Belarus in the context of the 2006 Presidential Elections.