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THE GEORGIAN TIMES: WILL NATO INTEGRATION HELP ENSURE OR RISK GEORGIA’S SECURITY? POLISH EXPERIENCE AND PUBLIC OPINION
Visiting Polish President Lech Kaczynski Monday voiced his country's support for Georgia's bid to join NATO. Speaking at a joint news conference with his Georgian counterpart Mikhail Saakashvili during his first official trip to Georgia, Kaczynski said Tbilisi could receive a formal invitation in 2008. President Saakashvili has no doubts that Georgia's integration into NATO is inevitable, he declared at the opening of the three-day NATO Parliamentary Assembly's 65th Rose-Roth seminar hosted by Tbilisi. But will NATO integration help ensure or risk Georgia’s security? Looking at Polish experience George Gamkrelidze, a Georgian researcher at the University of Gdansk, tried to answer this question. He interviewed Mr. Jarosław Wałęsa, a member of lower house of the Polish parliament. Jarosław Wałęsa is the son of Lech Walesa, the co-founder of Solidarity, the Soviet bloc’s first independent trade union.
George Gamkrelidze Why was it necessary for Poland to join NATO?
Jaroslaw Walesa To understand this, you have to understand the history of Poland, historically Poland had very close ties to the US and as we all know the core factor and the core agent of NATO is the US. Therefore it was necessary for Poland to shift from the Warsaw Pact to a new organization that would allow our relationship to flourish. Of course you have to understand other factors: NATO offers Poland a greater sense of security, something that we have not had for many years, even centuries. As you know, Poland lost its independence in the18th century, we regained it for a short period after 122 years and then we lost it during the Second World War. Therefore, a sense of security is very important for Poland and this sense of security comes from being a member of NATO.
G.G. What kind of threats did Poland face before and after NATO?
J.W. Before NATO, we were isolated. We were one nation against strong neighbors in the east and to the west. This was an uncomfortable situation. Afterwards, I don’t know of any threats. Of course, we have obligations which come with being a member of NATO and we are obligated to join even dangerous missions, but is it a threat or just a responsibility that comes with membership?
G.G. Was there any possible alternative to NATO membership that would have offered long term security to the country?
J.W. There was talk of making a second NATO — an organization of countries from the former Soviet Union. But of course, the economies of these countries were in such a poor condition that talking of creating a new organization was more theoretical than possible.
G.G. You mean the former Warsaw Pact countries?
J.W. Yes, excluding Russia.
G.G. Will the installation of US missiles systems and the deployment of the US military forces cause any threat to Poland in future?
J.W. Yes, I believe that it may present a danger. I am going to a conference tomorrow in Warsaw and we going to discuss these exact issues with our generals. I hope I will have greater knowledge regarding this proposition tomorrow, but today I will say that by creating this installation, Poland will be placed on terrorists’ maps. These installations will have the proper security, of course, and they will definitely strengthen our relationship with the US. Poland should present its demands clearly in negotiations. One [demand] could, or should be help from the US in terms of modernizing the Polish Armed Forces. Either way, it will create some dangers but I believe they will be addressed with the proper security protocols.
G.G. Would you agree that a possible, future installation of defense missiles in Poland will shift Russia’s defensive and offensive goals onto Poland?
J.W. It is due to a common misconception of how this system will work. This system has not been built to defend against Russia’s missile system. Why? Because this system can only intercept individual rockets — 20-30 at the most. It can not withstand a massive Russian attack. At the moment, Russia has 1700 warheads, so anyone who says that the American Missile Defense System in Poland goes against the Russian interests doesn’t understand how this system is supposed to work.
G.G. How do you estimate Georgia’s chances of joining NATO?
J.W. I would be more than happy to see Georgia become a member of NATO. I believe it is a long-term proposition but nonetheless, it’s in Georgia’s future. I think NATO will give Georgia the same sense of security that Poland. As a member of the Polish parliament I will do everything I can to help you with this goal.
G.G. Does Georgia have any options other than NATO membership for securing its sovereignty?
J.W. I am afraid not, I think that it’s the only option for Georgia. Creating some new organization at this point would only be a waste of time and money. The alternative would be to remain in the status quo. But this will not work forever. As with everything in life, it either evolves or erodes. Remaining in the current situation would be detrimental for Georgia.
G.G. Do you consider history when you create policy? For example, past relations between Poland and Russia?
J.W. A person who does not remember his past is doomed repeat it. So it’s important to remember the history of one’s nation, but it’s also important not to make it into a main topic of conversation, not to make it the main obstacle in discussions. It’s important to put your discussions in historical context but it’s important to look to the future as well, look to the common goals and not the things that used to set us apart.
G.G. Will neutrality be suitable for Georgia and for other post-Soviet countries?
J.W. NATO should be something more than what it was organized for and I believe it can be. I’m not saying NATO members should be the world’s policemen but it will definitely be the organization that supports security and peace in the world. We have to understand that there is only one argument that Russians will understand and that is strength. They will not accept the weaker and smaller countries as equal partners in any discussion. That’s just a fact, just a historical fact and what Mr. Putin is doing right now is just proving my point. Therefore, creating “buffer zones” is one way of looking at NATO expansion but this works in both ways: it strengthens the organization but also gives strength to the individual members.
G.G. Can Georgia choose neutrality when it has two frozen conflicts supported by Russia?
J.W. On one hand it will be better for Georgia to be neutral, not to escalate the problems that already exist but it does not have to be this way. By remaining neutral, Georgia can postpone the resolution of problems, but if it will not happen right now, it will happen in five, ten years and most likely it will not be in your favor. So something like this you have to consider, like when you play chess, you have to make a strategy and you must be sure that it’s consistent. It is necessary to be systematic and progressive in whatever you do, because if you show your insecurities, if you show indecisiveness in your foreign policy that will damage it more than anything else.
G.G. Would neutrality be suitable for Poland as it was, for instance, for Austria?
J.W. No, we are a different kind of people, unfortunately we are sometimes headstrong and sometimes we do things accordingly and our policy is a reflection of our beliefs. These values, combined with the historical struggles and the future ambitions suggest that we can never be neutral.
G.G. What are the cost and benefits of Poland for being a member of NATO?
J.W. The benefits are quite obvious: modernization of the Polish army, the implementation of new defense and offence systems, unification with the internal forces of NATO and better understanding of other member-states. The costs of course are involved in missions that are undertaken with NATO. Right now we are involved in different missions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. However, for right now it would seem that the benefits outweigh the costs.
G.G. What is Georgia’s importance to the strengthening of security in the Euro-Atlantic area?
J.W. I believe that nature of NATO will continue to expand. I believe that by expanding it will create more safety around the world. It’s natural progression and Georgia is just a natural step in the evolution of NATO.
G.G. What will Georgia’s role be in NATO?
J.W. That is the question you have to answer for yourself. I believe that Georgia’s role in NATO, when it eventually becomes a member; it will be the one that it would choose for itself and in this regard it’s hard to say what role it can play, it depends on how strong a partner it wants to be.
G.G. Will it greatly change the geopolitical picture?
J.W. Membership in NATO can give you strength but you have to understand that NATO is a military organization. In this regard, today’s world proves that there are other means of influencing one’s neighbors. Russia has had much influence by applying economic pressures, and has been influential in better ways and to a greater extend than they might have with military force. So, I hope you see what I am trying to say here — that on the one hand, militarily, you will receive security, but on the other hand there are also economic objectives you have to consider.
To some extent the geopolitical picture will change, but you should not expect NATO to provide what it is not supposed to give you. On the one hand you will get security, your geopolitical strength will expand. But on the other hand it’s important that your economy is booming, that investments are at a healthy levels and you constantly improving the lifestyle of your countrymen.
G.G. Will it weaken Russia’s position?
J.W. For Russia it’s going to be a serious blow, but it will not substantially change the current situation. I don’t think, it is NATO’s intent to aggravate Russia, to make it feel uncomfortable and to make it feel like it’s being surrounded by enemies. It is not the goal of NATO’s expansion plans. But of course you can bet anything you want, that Russians will use this argument to block the negotiations.
George Gamkrelidze is Researcher at the University of Gdansk; The Scholarship for Young Researchers of the Republic of Poland
“The Georgian Times”, April 23, 2007
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