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ZERKALO NEDELI: SALAM, MY LORDS!
The event that is taking place in Simferopol, Crimea may have a decisive impact on further political and economic developments in the peninsular autonomous republic. It is the Fifth Kurultai – the congress of Crimean Tartars which elects the Mejlis and sets its guidelines. Mustafa Djemilev, who has headed the Mejlis for 16 years, has stated his intention to resign.
This happens at the height of a dangerous conflict between the Crimean Tartar returnees and local authorities over private seizure of land. Notably, the Crimean Tartar community is not united anymore: the once solid electorate has come apart. Radical Muslim groupings are growing strong and men of business are gaining more influence in the Mejlis. If these two vectors overlap, the situation may get out of control.
Mustafa Djemilev explains his resignation by his election to the Verkhovna Rada and his worsening health that was undermined in exile. He tried to step down before, but every time he announced his resignation, he was persuaded to stay.
“I think at this Kurultai he’ll announce his resignation. Then there’ll be tears and protests and outcries like ‘Please don’t go!’, and in the end the Kurultai will reelect him once again,’ the Kontext-Media quotes delegate Nadir Bekirov. ‘I think he is aware that he is losing control over the common people. He wants this Kurultai to demonstrate their love of him again.”
Djemilev’s opponents say that this is not just political coquetry of an old leader who wants to hear words like “You are the one and only!” This way he wants to find out disloyal and power-hungry comrades-in-arms. However, they are wrong.
This time the loudest protests against Djemilev’s resignation come from those who are supposed to be after his post – Refat Chubarov, Ilmi Umerov, and Remzi Ilyasov. Each of them has his reasons. Chubarov, whom Djemilev himself proposes as his successor, refuses to replace him. Djemilev said in an interview on the eve of the Kurultai, “The delegates should bear down harder on him.”
Chubarov keeps referring to Djemilev’s charisma, which means one thing: the pressure is not hard enough. In a live TV interview Chubarov said: “We want to reform the Mejlis and we need Mustafa Djemilev’s authority to back these reforms. It’s no secret that there is always a wide variety of opinions in a big political organism, and not all of its components pursue the goals that are declared openly. Very often private interests prevail, so we need Mustafa Djemilev’s authority to prevent such politicians from impeding reforms.”
In plain language this means the following: if Mustafa-bey goes, the Mejlis, torn by a feud, may be “privatized” by some influential business-political group. Remzi Ilyasov, a member of the Crimean parliament’s presidium and the third person in the Mejlis after Djemilev and Chubarov, is the main lobbyist for that group’s interests. Shortly before the Kurultai, Ilyasov began to secretly form a certain “coalition” that would back him up in reelecting Djemilev and bringing his people into the Mejlis.
Mustafa Djemilev, who has demonstrated many times his authoritarian style and has arranged all rules and regulations for his termless chairmanship (like the late Turkmen president Niyazov did), would hardly cede his status of the nation’s leader. He would hardly give up his levers of influence on the Mejlis, the faction in the Crimean parliament, the members of the Crimean government and local self-governments delegated by the Mejlis, and some Tartar businessmen. All he could share is the weight of responsibility.
According to some sources, there are two options: either to institute the post of Kurultai chairman for Djemilev and elect Refat Chubarov Mejlis chairman, or to postpone Djemilev’s resignation for a year and “reform” the Mejlis and its grass roots in the meantime.
Neither scenario is good for Chubarov. It is clear that if this promising, popular, educated, and moderate politician heads the Mejlis, he can never claim any important post in Kyiv (especially after his failure to enter the Verkhovna Rada on the pro-presidential bloc’s election roll). However, Chubarov is known as a man of principles who is dedicated to his people.
Either way, the Kurultai will follow Djemilev’s decision, and Chubarov’s consent is just a matter of time. Chubarov is determined to reform the Mejlis in order to “bring it closer to the people and their vital needs”, but that is a matter of his limits of freedom (which will be set by the new composition of the Mejlis).
The price of each seat in the Mejlis is very high. So are the stakes in this political game where any means justify the goals. According to some delegates, before the registration at the Kurultai they were offered money for their votes in favor of certain candidates. It is for the first time that there are so many big businessmen and officials among the delegates. Those people are supposed to make the basis of the “coalition”. Now, after the clashes on the Ai-Petri (when policemen used force against Crimean Tartar returnees who were defending their illegally built houses from demolition), the balance between ideology-minded and business-minded politicians becomes the decisive factor. When seven returnees were taken to hospital (one with a gunshot wound), the Mejlis voted for setting up self-defense units. Djemilev vetoed the decision, explaining that it would run counter to the traditional principles of non-violence. Now it is up to the Kurultai as the higher authority to override the veto. Djemilev insists on other methods, but many believe that this method is adequate, arguing that Crimean authorities use Cossacks and special police forces against the returnees while the land problem remains unresolved and hundreds of hectares are appropriated by sundry “investors”.
The private seizure of land by Crimean Tartar returnees is the most complex problem Chubarov is going to face if he heads the Mejlis. It is clear that such land plots will never be legalized – at least because the price of Crimean land is growing and this issue is a matter of commerce and corruption rather than just politics. Besides, Chubarov will have to do something about numerous self-defense units that already guard land plots without waiting for the green light from the Kurultai.
In fact, the problem of uncontrollable processes in the Crimean Autonomous Republic confronts not only the representative body named Mejlis. It must be tackled by the central government in Kyiv, because the unsolved vital problems of Crimean Tartar returnees pose a serious threat to national security.
Chubarov has not formulated his strategy of reforms yet. However, there is a more important question: how much influence in the Mejlis will Djemilev retain? It is already clear that Djemilev’s positions are weakening. No matter if he stays or goes, he will remain the Crimean Tartars’ leader, but decisions will be made by businessmen and officials who have all chances to hold the majority in the Mejlis. Under such circumstances Chubarov can only count on support from Kyiv. In practical terms it looks like this: at President Yushchenko’s initiative the Verkhovna Rada passes the bill on rehabilitation of Crimean Tartar deportees (that was vetoed by Leonid Kuchma) and the new government puts the Crimean land market in order. Kyiv has to approach the problems of former deportees with a far-sighted and consistent policy. Otherwise, it will have to put out new fires in the peninsula…
Valentyna SAMAR
"Zerkalo Nedeli", 8 – 14 December, 2007
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