Although the birth rate began exceeding the mortality rate recently, the population growth will remain an acute problem over the next few years. Poverty and high rates of migration tend to be the main explanations for population decline in Georgia.

Georgian society is generally characterized by passive demographic activity. This means that the difference between birth rates and death rates was not high. In the Soviet Era, people had better living standards, but Georgia’s growth rate was nevertheless only one percent. In other countries, this figure had reached two percent, while in demographically active societies it was three percent or more.

The 1990s events in Georgia (ethnic conflict and economic collapse) caused demographic activity to slow. There was a sharp rise in the mortality rate, especially in newborn babies, while the birth rate fell dramatically.

Last year, the World Bank released a pessimistic report about the Georgian population decline. The report titled From Red to Grey, made calculations based on the United Nations 2005 estimates that Georgia’s population would decline from the current 4million to 800,000 by 2025. However, co-author M. Chawla presented the report in the WB Tbilisi office a few months ago and some critics argue that the situation might not be as dramatic as the report suggests, because it did not adequately reflect the positive changes in Georgia.

What they were referring to is data from the Statistics Department of Georgia showing that the birth rate increased from 46,605 in 2002 to 47,795 in 2006 while the mortality rate fell from 46,446 in 2002 to 42,255 in 2006.

Despite this slight progress, Georgian woman are not still having as many babies as they should to promote growth, and this has become a real concern for Georgian society. The Orthodox Church stepped in to help and Catholicos Patriarch of Georgia Ilia II said he would be the Godfather of every third and following child in families, to encourage having more babies. On the holiday of Epiphany, he kept his promise and baptized 535 children in Sameba Cathedral.

The head of the Patriarch Foundation, Irakli Kadagishvili said that Georgians always listen to and follow the Patriarch’s statements carefully, and that this initiative will push the demographic issue to the forefront. Nevertheless, Amb. Archil Gegeshidze political analyst and senior fellow at GFSIS, says that the Catholicos-Patriarch’s initiative is only yielding short-term benefits. Although he is not a demographer by profession, Archil Gegeshidze makes strong points on the issue.

“The Patriarch’s initiative is acceptable and purposeful, but it is temporary,” he says. “It will have affects only on the short-term period. For the long-term, more multi-faceted, complex and well realized programs will be needed, such as the improvement of social and economic conditions, creation of more jobs, and seeking ways which will encourage people to have more children, etc.” he adds.

Marina, 60, a Tbilisi resident, has four grandchildren. She says that as it is, her family hardly manages to make ends meet. They do not have many basic everyday needs and in recent years, her family received state assistance: 40cubic meter gas and utility services were covered by the state and she received a 5 GEL allowance for every child monthly.

“It was like a drop in the sea, but it meant something to us, especially the benefits for gas charges. But the benefits were removed recently,” Marina says, disheartened.

The government now issues allowances of 35 GEL (Euro 14.9) only to families who have seven or more children up to the age of 18. Besides that, people who live under the poverty line receive a full package of medical services and 400 Gel in assistance for every newborn. The recent joint initiative by the government and private sector (unveiled during Saakashvili’s presidential campaign) increases allowances for newborns of deprived families to 1000 GEL.

Another attempt to increase births in Georgia is through providing social care after birth. Medical assistance up to the age of three is completely free of charge and from the ages of three to fifteen, the government pays for 20% of expenses; immunizations are also free.

The Head of the Parliamentary Health Committee, Gigi Tsereteli admits that a key reason for the poor demography is the high poverty rate.

“The rise of the economy will naturally affect demography. Our ambition is to fight against poverty, while creating new jobs, which will raise the demographic figures. During 2008, we must have a single document which will consist of complex issues of demography, but the most important is to eradicate poverty in Georgia,” he says.

However, Kadagishvili highlights that financial and social factors are not always decisive. He flags the morality issue and gives the Catholicos-Patriarch’s initiative as an example. More support for his theory lies in the fact that the birth rate almost peaked in the early 90s, when Georgia regained independence and patriotic sentiments prompted many Georgian woman to have babies.

On top of social conditions, migration is another cause for population decline, experts say. Rough estimations show that over 1 million Georgians migrated abroad between 1990 and 2006.

“If we add to this the problems of immigration caused by economic conditions, the general picture becomes very dangerous,” Gegeshidze says.

Gegeshidze warns that raising the birth rate and reducing the death rate at the same time is not an easy task. “Social and economic factors don‘t influence demographic activity so much as do urbanization, new style of life and women’s social activity. Unemployment further causes fewer marriages. And in later created families the possibility of having many children is far more less… There are four phases in demographic activity and we are now in the last, fourth phase. This means that our death rate is bigger than the birth rate. History has not yet seen an example of even one country which managed to return from this phase,” says Gegeshidze.

Tsereteli promises that the government will soon develop a strategy to deliver on healthcare and education, two factors influencing demography.

Tia Vashakidze Kristine Pataraia

The Georgian Times, February 12, 2008

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