|
NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA: WHO STANDS BEHIND THE POLITICAL CHANGE IN KYRGYZSTAN
The reasons of the revolution in Bishkek can be revealed through attitude towards the American military base in Kyrgyzstan.
Many people believe that resignation of Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev was initiated by Washington. But now the events in Kyrgyzstan point out that Russia or China could stand behind the “tulip revolution”.
When Askar Akayev was the President of Kyrgyzstan an American military base appeared in the country. Its allocation was connected with the anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan. It is doubtful that the situation in Afghanistan has normalized and the Taliban is entirely defeated. On the contrary, recently the military contingents of the coalition countries have been attacked more frequently and the drug trafficking has become more intense. Yet, the new President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev supported the recommendations made at the last SCO summit in Astana during which the USA had been proposed to determine time constrains when its military base would be withdrawn from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. He stated about this at his first press conference after he had won the presidential elections. The new Kyrgyz President said that the situation in Afghanistan has been stabilized, “the presidential elections were held and the parliamentary elections are not far off, so the question arises as to whether to set the terms of withdrawal of the air base of the anti-terrorist coalition from Kyrgyzstan”. Kurmanbek Bakiyev made it clear that the Russian military base in Kant would not be withdrawn.
The Russian political analysts hold to an opinion that the first statement made by the new President should not be taken seriously. The Head of the department of international relations at the Institute of political and military analysis Sergei Markedonov thinks that “those statements are mostly populist and are up to high expectations”. According to him the Kyrgyz authorities face more important problems. It is necessary to keep the unity of the country, to respond to the challenges such as the problems of poverty and corruption, the Uzbek national minority and the Islamic fundamentalism in the south of Kyrgyzstan. Sergei Markedonov said that “it is essential to look at these problems rather than to minimize the American influence”.
However, Washington could not turn a deaf ear to the message. The spokesman of the US Department of State Sean McCormack stated, “the use of military bases in that area has been determined by the bilateral agreements and is the part of the efforts to render assistance to the Afghan people in creating democracy”. The US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow reported, “the USA will decide the issues of the American military bases’ staying in Central Asia countries on a bilateral basis”. The accredited American diplomats in Tajikistan regard the issue on the withdrawal of the military bases from Central Asia as a premature one.
Sergei Markedonov believes that the recent events in Central Asia show that this region needs “a regional policeman”. The peaceful stage of the color revolutions is over and they took place in the CIS European part. In the East the situation is different. The Russian expert says, “I would not be against Russia’s acting as a regional policeman. But Russia is not able to play such a role alone neither in terms of its resources, nor its possibilities, nor its political will”. He thinks that Russia should unite its efforts with those of the USA. If it fails Central Asia will be controlled by China. Sergei Markedonov says, “For the USA we can be junior partners but for China we can be only junior vassals”.
Anyway Central Asia should have a foreign guarantor of the regional security. The local regimes are weak and they will fail to control the situation without foreign assistance. The scenario of the Russian and American cooperation is more promising than the Russian and Chinese one or only the Chinese scenario.
Felix Kulov, the second person to the Kyrgyz President who was appointed as an acting Prime-Minister tried to dissipate the tension created after the new President’s statement. He noted that it was not the change of the relationships between the USA and the Central Asia countries, in particular the member states of the SCO. The relationships should be more certain. Besides, Kulov reminded that Kyrgyzstan had decided to admit the Americans to “Manas” airport only after consultations within the CSTO had been made and an agreement with Moscow had been reached.
Viktoriya Panfilova
«Nezavisimaya Gazeta», July 13, 2005
|
