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GOVERNMENTAL RESHUFFLES IN KYRGYZSTAN
ALEXANDER KNYAZEV,
Doctor of History, Professor, Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, Bishkek
I believe that the recent reshuffles in the Kyrgyz government indicate that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is a more responsible political leader than former Premier Felix Kulov who headed the opposition camp after he had resigned.
Bakiyev proves himself to be a strong politician since he is ready to negotiate with the opposition forces and make a compromise with them.
That is showed by the appointment of the eminent oppositionist Almaz Atambayev as Prime Minister. Atambayev enjoys widespread support of the Kyrgyz people, and his appointment reduces the opposition’s electoral resource.
It is another thing that Kulov and his supporters are not ready to make compromises. This can worsen the relations between the government and the opposition camp in the near future.
So, it is difficult to forecast the developments in the country. Bakiyev seeks new grounds for compromise. He replaced several ministers, announced that the referendum on confidence in the President could be held. Before he had reorganized the status of television (from “state-owned” into public).
All of this means that Bakiyev is ready to make compromises and carry on negotiations with the opposition in future.
Anyway, current governmental reshuffles will result in weakening of the opposition. It is another matter that the opposition has significant financial resources that is of great importance in Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, the opposition can hold many protest rallies in April.
The Russia’s factor will play the essential role in the government and the opposition confrontation. Recently Felix Kulov’s representatives have spread the information in Kyrgyzstan that the former Premier visited Moscow, enlisted First Vice Premier Sergey Ivanov’s support and that he was financed by Head of RAO UES Anatoly Chubais.
However, this seems to be nothing but bravado. Today all the politicians back up the cooperation with Russia. If a politician comes out against Russia, he is doomed to failure.
So, Kulov has to emphasize that he is a pro-Russian politician. But I strongly doubt that this is true. It is known that Kulov became the Kyrgyz politician thanks to his close links with the U.S. Democratic Party. The then Secretary of State Madelyn Albright came to Kyrgyzstan in order to persuade Askar Akayev to free Kulov from the prison. I believe that those links still exist.
That’s why the opposition considers the future rallies to be a more important event than the forthcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek. The opposition’s actions can prevent the summit from being held. That means that if Kulov comes to power, Kyrgyzstan’s policy may become anti-Russian, anti-Chinese, anti-SCO and pro-American.
March 30, 2007
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