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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN KYRGYZSTAN
ALEXEI MAKARKIN,
Deputy General Director of the Center of Political Technologies (Moscow, Russia)
PRESIDENT IS CHOSEN: A REVOLUTIONARY POLITICAL SOLUTION FOR KYRGYZSTAN
Presidential elections will take place in Kyrgyzstan on July 10. However, it is clear already who will take the presidential office if nothing extraordinary happens: Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Kyrgyzstan's incumbent premier and acting president.
This became obvious when Bakiyev struck a deal with Felix Kulov, his main political rival who pledged to withdraw from the presidential race. The election campaign had threatened to split Kyrgyzstan, which has been divided in a fierce rivalry between the mighty clans representing the north and the south of the republic since the Soviet era. "Northerners" ran the country under President Askar Akayev, whereas the "southerners" came to power recently after staging an uprising and toppling him. But the north did not want to reconcile itself with defeat and advanced a new leader - retired General Kulov, an ex-vice president, interior minister, and mayor of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan's capital under the previous regime.
In the late 1990s, Kulov, once an Akayev supporter, came into conflict with the president, was arrested and sentenced to a long jail term for committing economic crimes. He was rehabilitated and reappeared on the country's political arena after Akayev was overthrown.
Neither Bakiyev, nor Kulov would have been clear favorites in the presidential race, while the victory for one of them could have been challenged by the other's supporters. The ensuing instability would have brought complete chaos and thereby frustrated plans to improve the country's investment climate, which has been ruined by inter-clan strife and violence.
Recent events put the republic's territorial integrity at risk with the emergence of the Islamic factor exported from neighboring Uzbekistan. Indeed, many of the protesters involved in the bloody clashes with security forces in Andizhan, a city in eastern Uzbekistan, fled to Kyrgyzstan. The most forward-looking politicians and business leaders in the republic clearly do not want such a prospect.
Russia, Kyrgyzstan's partner in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), is also seeking political stability in the republic, while Bakiyev and Kulov have both made their positive attitude to Russia known.
As a result, the north and the south reached a compromise, the first one in Kyrgyzstan's modern history. Kulov pledged to withdraw from the race and focus on promoting Bakiyev. Should Bakiyev win the elections, he will appoint Kulov premier. If the premier resigns, the president will also have to leave office. Interestingly, Kulov has been appointed acting first deputy prime minister until the end of the election campaign, and as Bakiyev agreed to officially be on vacation throughout the campaign, this means that Kulov will be in charge of the country during the transitional period.
To ensure that there is no abuse of office by the northern leader during that period, the two politicians included a provision in their accord that obliges Kulov to resign and not join a new cabinet if Bakiyev fails at the polls.
The two leaders also agreed that the constitution should be amended to give the premier broader powers in the economic and political spheres, including in forming a cabinet and appointing local administrations, something that also has to be agreed on with the president. The president will oversee the security ministries and agencies, law enforcement bodies, and foreign affairs. This will be a major constitutional reform designed to divide power between the two chief executives.
Indeed, premiers were frequently dismissed under Akayev, and they lacked their own political identity.
The former rivals, Bakiyev and Kulov thoroughly set out their mutual obligations in the agreement, which is fair enough. The choice of the guarantors of the agreement, i.e., the parliamentary speaker and the chairmen of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts, was no coincidence either. However, the new alliance's viability will be in question even if the parties to the agreement fulfill their commitments in the run-up to the elections. Sharing power is not typical of Central Asian leaders, who are known to seek absolute political and economic control over their countries. In the past, the government and the Islamic opposition in Tajikistan came to terms after a fierce confrontation that evolved into a civil war. Still, the Islamic forces in Tajikistan only received their quota of power, but were not given authority to form a government or select regional bosses.
This is both a forced compromise between the leaders of two influential clans, and a revolutionary political solution for the country and the region as a whole. If the solution proves a success, it will set a precedent for other Central Asian states, but failure will put Kyrgyzstan's territorial integrity at risk.
Source: RIA Novosti
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