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ECONOMIC CRISIS UNITES YULIYA TYMOSHENKO BLOC AND PARTY OF REGIONS

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VITALY BALA,
Director of the Situations Modeling Agency, Kyiv

The potential Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions alliance can be created formally or informally. Regardless of the alliance format, this would be the best scenario because then the presidential campaign would be free of stark confrontations. What is more, this alliance may smooth the relative division of the country into the west and the east.

It would also have a wholesome effect on the politicians’ actions. Yuliya Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych, leaders of Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions, would have to do good deeds, whether they like it or not. During a financial crisis, a great opposition force would tie a government’s hands.

About 70% of the Ukrainian east, west and center’s population would support Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions alliance. It could have the constitutional parliamentary majority making it possible to reduce the negative consequences of the financial meltdown. Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions would be able to collect all the necessary intellectual and technical resources.  

Of course, one cannot say that the alliance would be stable for a long time. It would be just temporary but, anyway, useful for the country. The political infighting during the presidential campaign would be much less furious.

In such a situation the future parliamentary Speaker post would be of low importance. The Party of Regions' candidate should become the Speaker. He would act as a coordinator raising the questions approved by Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions' leaders.

Here great importance is attached to the constitutional majority. This would safeguard the alliance against any unforeseen steps taken by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his administration. The alliance could overturn the President’s veto on the parliamentary bills. It will be good if Volodymyr Lytvyn Bloc and the Communist Party of Ukraine join the alliance, and some lawmakers of  "Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense" faction vote for certain bills too.

Leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych would have a chance of becoming a serious political figure in Ukraine again. This could be Viktor Yanukovych’s best opportunity to launch his presidential campaign. In the case of early elections, Mr. Yanukovych may not become the Prime Minister. Moreover, during a crisis, the Prime Minister is not the best post in the country. The trade unions and the Communists are able to organize serious protest marches, which could be averted by Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions alliance.

December 5, 2008




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