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ECONOMIC CRISIS UNITES YULIYA TYMOSHENKO BLOC AND PARTY OF REGIONS
VITALY BALA,
Director of the Situations Modeling Agency, Kyiv
The potential Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions alliance can be created formally or informally. Regardless of the alliance format, this would be the best scenario because then the presidential campaign would be free of stark confrontations. What is more, this alliance may smooth the relative division of the country into the west and the east.
It would also have a wholesome effect on the politicians’ actions. Yuliya Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych, leaders of Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions, would have to do good deeds, whether they like it or not. During a financial crisis, a great opposition force would tie a government’s hands.
About 70% of the Ukrainian east, west and center’s population would support Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions alliance. It could have the constitutional parliamentary majority making it possible to reduce the negative consequences of the financial meltdown. Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions would be able to collect all the necessary intellectual and technical resources.
Of course, one cannot say that the alliance would be stable for a long time. It would be just temporary but, anyway, useful for the country. The political infighting during the presidential campaign would be much less furious.
In such a situation the future parliamentary Speaker post would be of low importance. The Party of Regions' candidate should become the Speaker. He would act as a coordinator raising the questions approved by Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions' leaders.
Here great importance is attached to the constitutional majority. This would safeguard the alliance against any unforeseen steps taken by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his administration. The alliance could overturn the President’s veto on the parliamentary bills. It will be good if Volodymyr Lytvyn Bloc and the Communist Party of Ukraine join the alliance, and some lawmakers of "Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense" faction vote for certain bills too.
Leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych would have a chance of becoming a serious political figure in Ukraine again. This could be Viktor Yanukovych’s best opportunity to launch his presidential campaign. In the case of early elections, Mr. Yanukovych may not become the Prime Minister. Moreover, during a crisis, the Prime Minister is not the best post in the country. The trade unions and the Communists are able to organize serious protest marches, which could be averted by Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions alliance.
December 5, 2008
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04.10.2008
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GALLUP.COM: UKRAINIANS MAY OPPOSE PRESIDENT’S PRO-WESTERN GOALS
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A Gallup Poll found a strong majority of Ukrainians (65%) saying their leadership is taking the country in the wrong direction and only about one in six (16%) expressing confidence in their national government.
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Expert forum
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE. CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
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VADIM KARASYOV, MIKHAIL POGREBINSKY, VITALY PORTNIKOV
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17.10.2008
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There is a question about the situation after the elections. But why should it change? If the elections outcome is about the same as in the last elections (the public opinion polls show that), the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine will not have the majority to build a coalition.
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DISSOLUTION OF THE VERKHOVNA RADA: POSSIBILITIES AND RISKS
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VITALY BALA
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15.10.2008
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Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko herself have reacted negatively to President Viktor Yushchenko’s decision to dissolve the Verkhovha Rada and to hold early parliamentary elections.
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THE BREAKUP OF THE 'ORANGE' COALITION
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VITALY BALA
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17.09.2008
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The main reason for the breakup of the 'orange' coalition is that President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko does not want to accept Yuliya Tymoshenko's wide popularity in Ukraine.
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VADIM KARASYOV, VITALY PORTNIKOV
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16.09.2008
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"Currently there are a few people in Ukraine backing Viktor Yushchenko’s nation building and cultural project, and if the early elections were called the votes could be distributed, in the main, between the Party of Regions and Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc," Vitaly Portnikov said.
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VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE OVERRIDES THE PRESIDENTIAL VETO ON THE LAW ON THE CABINET
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IGOR BURAKOVSKY
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15.01.2007
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Verkhovna Rada’s overriding the presidential veto means that President Yushchenko loses his actual leverage. We can observe the anti-crisis coalition strengthening its role and significance in the Ukrainian system of power.
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Opinion
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| John Marone |
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A report recently released by U.S. intelligence agencies predicts that American influence on the global stage will diminish over the next 15 years, as the rise of powers such as China, India and other third-world giants creates a more multi-polar planet. So where does Ukraine fit into this scenario?
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UKRAINE'S INDEPENDENCE DEPENDENT ON RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
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| John Marone |
17.11.2008
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Now, more than any time since the country gained independence 17 years ago, Ukraine looks destined to come back under Russian hegemony. Ironically, the more the pro-Western administration of President Viktor Yushchenko resists this outcome, the greater the chances of it coming about.
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| John Marone |
31.10.2008
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The 2008 U.S. presidential-election campaign has been watched with much anticipation, both at home and abroad. There’s a woman vice president on the Republican ticket, and an African-American being fielded by the Democrats for the nation’s top job. Whichever party wins, history will be made.
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| John Marone |
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Author’s opinion on other topics
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23 December 2009
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For the time being, it is unclear who will rank third. The main fight unfolds between Viktor Yushchenko and Serhyi Tigipko. Viktor Yushchenko can be such an aspirant, as he is Ukraine’s President, while Arseniy Yatsenuk can fail to rank third.
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UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA-EU RELATIONS
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20 November 2009
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Ukraine's issue in the context of Russia-EU relations is not of current importance. As regards the foreign-policy issues, the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence is of the greatest significance to Moscow now.
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TYMOSHENKO MAY WIN YANUKOVYCH IN THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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16 October 2009
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Leader of the opposition Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko continue to be the major presidential candidates. In the first round Viktor Yanukovych can rank first. But in the second round he will lose the election to Yuliya Tymoshenko.
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INITIATORS OF DMITRY MEDVEDEV’S ADDRESS TO THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT HAVE MADE A STRATEGIC MISTAKE
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13 August 2009
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Dmitry Medvedev’s address to his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko indicates that Russia is acting towards its neighbors like in the early nineties, when the doctrine on Moscow’s exclusive interests in the former Soviet Union prevailed.
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28 April 2009
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko's criticizing Yuliya Tymoshenko’s gas agreements with Russia at the meeting of the Council of National Security and Defense, which was held on February 10, 2009, indicates that the President’s fight against his political competitors has reached an inadmissible level.
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DISSOLUTION OF THE VERKHOVNA RADA: POSSIBILITIES AND RISKS
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15 October 2008
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Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko herself have reacted negatively to President Viktor Yushchenko’s decision to dissolve the Verkhovha Rada and to hold early parliamentary elections.
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THE BREAKUP OF THE 'ORANGE' COALITION
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17 September 2008
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The main reason for the breakup of the 'orange' coalition is that President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko does not want to accept Yuliya Tymoshenko's wide popularity in Ukraine.
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YULIYA TYMOSHENKO IMPROVES THE RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW
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06 August 2008
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When Yuliya Tymoshenko was firstly going to visit Russia as Prime Minister after the last parliamentary elections, I believed that this might be a breakthrough in the Russian-Ukrainian relations.
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UKRAINE: EARLY ELECTIONS OF THE KYIV MAYOR
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29 May 2008
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I would not exaggerate the importance of the Kyiv mayoral elections in terms of their influence on the political situation in the country as a whole. Though, of course, the elections were of great importance.
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UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO VERSUS TYMOSHENKO
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14 May 2008
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The President Yushchenko’s wish to push through his version of the constitutional reform played a mean trick on him. The President and his team did not expect that Prime Minister Tymoshenko would offer such resistance. And Tymoshenko took the initiative.
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100 DAYS FOR TYMOSHENKO’S CABINET
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28 March 2008
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“100 days” implies carte blanche for any government. A government can do almost whatever they like within that period: reshuffle the Cabinet, put forward reforms or pursue their own economic policy. In other words, a government is given a free hand.
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UKRAINE SIGNED THE PROTOCOL ON JOINING THE WTO
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06 February 2008
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No large-scale information campaign on Ukraine’s joining the WTO was conducted in the country. Therefore, the Ukrainians do not understand very well what is in store for them and which advantages and disadvantages for Ukraine the entry conceals.
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TYMOSHENKO’S GOVERNMENT AND THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS
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17 January 2008
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Tymoshenko’s seeking to remove the RosUkrEnergo company from the the chain of the gas supplies and transit should be considered as an element of her presidential campaign. "Gas relations" with Russia became one of her weak points during her first premiership.
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12 December 2007
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From now on Tymoshenko’s appointment as Premier is a matter of principle. I believe that the democratic coalition is sure to have her appointed as Ukraine’s Prime Minister.
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UKRAINE: LONG PROCESS OF COALITION BUILDING
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22 November 2007
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Viktor Yushchenko profits from the procrastination of the coalition formation. As the coalition is not formed, Viktor Yanukovych's government becomes semi-legitimate. The President is the only authority.
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FORMATION OF THE “ORANGE” COALITION IN UKRAINE
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17 October 2007
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In terms of tactics, the "orange" coalition formatoin is ByuT’s victory. But as head of state, Viktor Yushchenko is a winner, too, because he can strengthen his power through the change of the Law on Cabinet and the constitutional reform.
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION TO THE VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE
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26 September 2007
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The returns of forthcoming parliamentary election in Ukraine will surprise its participants. Firstly, it concerns the Party of Regions. Any efforts to mobilize the voters by accusing the rivals were inefficient. This tactic proved to be counterproductive.
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SPECIAL SESSION OF THE VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE
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05 September 2007
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On September 4, the Socialist Party of Ukraine, the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine took part in the special session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, called by Speaker and leader of the Socialist Party of Ukraine, Oleksandr Moroz.
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START OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN UKRAINE
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03 August 2007
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On August 2, the parliamentary election campaign officially takes off in Ukraine. The leaders of the election race, the Party of Regions and Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc are losing their voters and getting less popular.
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UKRAINE IN THE RUN-UP TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
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14 June 2007
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Now the Party of Regions is dominated by the group focusing on businessman Rinat Akhmetov’s interests. The group is not interested in the cooperation with the Socialist Party but it is interested in holding the early elections and in constructive cooperation with the other forces.
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD IN UKRAINE
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11 May 2007
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I believe that President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych reached a relative compromise about the early parliamentary elections in Ukraine because they came to realize that saber-rattling and conflict escalation could only lead the country to a deadlock.
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UKRAINE: APPOINTMENTS IN THE CABINET OF MINISTERS
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22 March 2007
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If to take into account Yatsenyuk’s considerable experience and young age, he may become one of the most promising young ministers, while the government can get a surprise.
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DISMISSALS IN THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT
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05 December 2006
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As regards the dismissals of Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko and Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk, they will not worsen the relations between the West and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. On the contrary, the December visit of Yanukovych to the USA was a matter of principle.
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