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THE GAS CRISIS IMPACT ON UKRAINE’S POLITICS
DMITRY VYDRIN,
Director of the European Institute for Integration and Development, Member of Presidium of the Party of the Free Democrats, Kyiv
Russia-Ukraine gas dispute has had several consequences for the Ukrainian politics.
As regards tactics, it led to polarization of views in the Ukrainian political establishment and in the Parliament. There are two opposite sides in the Ukrainian elite. The representatives of the former believe, that the patriotic spirit is essential for advocacy of the political leadership at any cost. While the ones in the latter say, that the truth is more important for Ukraine – it makes it possible to reveal and solve the existing problems.
From the strategic point of view, the gas conflict is to lead to serious political changes. Ukraine’s gas transportation system is a complicated mechanism, but it’s a particular case. In Ukraine there are lots of such mechanisms requiring special managerial skills.
In this aspect, the gas dispute clearly revealed two things. First, it demonstrated the inefficiency of the current authorities, which are unable to manage sophisticated economic, political, geo-economic and other processes. That can be followed by the political regime change. I believe, it will happen this year – by way of early parliamentary elections and, probably, by holding early presidential and parliamentary elections.
Secondly, the crisis revealed the inefficiency of the Ukraine’s political system. President and Prime-Minister duplicate each other not in a good sense of a word, but in a negative one. They disrupt each other’s performance, annul each other’s decisions, confront each other etc. That will cause the regime shift.
The Temporary Commission on Investigation the Operating of the Gas Transport System and Ensuring Gas Supplies to Consumers in 2008-2009 is established in the Ukrainian Parliament. It is headed by famous lawyer and politician Inna Bogoslovskaya. Mrs. Bogoslovskaya is able to make conceptual conclusions, rather than looking for fall guys. That’s why I hope the conclusions made by the Commission will coincide with my opinion over the impact of the gas crisis on the Ukraine’s political system.
January 19, 2009
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