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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN KYRGYZSTAN
VIKTOR KOVTUNOVSKY,
Political Analyst (Kazakhstan)
POLITICAL POLES IN KYRGYZSTAN ARE THE MOST RELIABLE IMMUNITY AGAINST AUTHORITARIANISM
If the new Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev does not establish dictatorship as his predecessor did, the redivision of power and political conflicts will be permanent. But it will not be a continuation of the “tulip revolution”. It will be a normal situation which is peculiar to the democratic regimes.
It is clear that the main political events in Kyrgyzstan will take place around the two politicians - Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Felix Kulov. These political poles are the most reliable immunity against authoritarianism. (By the way, the post- revolution Georgia lacks it.). It is important that no party should settle disagreements by force.
A counter-revolution may take place until the Kyrgyz people get rid of the former President Askar Akaev's “heritage” that is the so-called “presidential republic”. This is the main lesson of all the “color revolutions” that took place in the countries where Presidents had too sweeping powers.
Countries that are adjacent to Kyrgyzstan have to accept the presidential election results. For all the fact that Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev was on familiar terms with Askar Akaev, it is doubtful that the two countries have no discords. I think that after the “tulip revolution” in Kyrgyzstan Nursultan Nazarbayev felt contempt for Akaev who had deserted the country rather than antagonism to the new President Bakiyev.
The danger of losing power that the authoritarian leaders of Central Asia countries face comes not from the outer world but from the opposition forces in their countries. The authorities realize the fact and they take preventive measures against the opposition.
Of course, the events in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan inspire hope into the democratic opposition in Kazakhstan. Not the opposition but the current authorities should draw the moral of the events. Revolutions occur not because of George Soros and CIA devise them. People hate their governors and this hatred instigates to do revolutions. If the former presidents Edward Shevardnadze (Georgia), Leonid Kuchma (Ukraine) and Askar Akaev (Kyrgyzstan) had restrained economic ambitions of their relatives who strove to line their pockets by hook or by crook, their political fates would have been different.
It is necessary to realize that the illegal methods, such as popular uprisings take place since the dictatorial regimes make it impossible for people to alter corrupted, anti-popular governments by legal means. Any regime that is not legitimate cannot be stable. So, the overthrow of any dictatorship should be considered as a way to obtain a true stability.
July 15, 2005
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