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THE U.S.A. IS CHANGING ITS POLICY TOWARDS CENTRAL ASIA
AZAMAT TEMIRKULOV,
Political analyst, senior lecturer at American University of Central Asia, Bishkek
Today we can see the U.S.A. changing its policy towards Central Asia, which is connected with the renewal of the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan under new President Barack Obama.
During Bush’s presidency Iraq used to be of primary interest to the U.S.A., but now the new Administration is turning to Afghanistan.
As a result, Washington is altering its attitude to the Central Asian region in the context of Afghanistan. The main cause is to ensure routes to transfer the American cargo to Afghanistan.
So, the U.S. authorities are negotiating with Tajikistan, and the issue of placing a military base in Uzbekistan can be solved with Tashkent soon. Washington stepped up the negotiations because Bishkek had decided to close down the U.S. base “Manas”. The U.S.A. is looking for other ways to plant the airbase.
That’s why the U.S.A.-Uzbekistan rapprochement is possible. Some experts say that Tajikistan can also become America’s ally in the region. But in my view, this is less likely as Tajikistan’s situation is not very stable.
Against this background Russia actively backs Kyrgyzstan granting it the credit for construction of Kambaratinskaya hydroelectric power plant. On the whole, all of that is changing the correlation of forces in Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan becomes Russia’s main ally in the region, while Uzbekistan may become the U.S. main partner. The other important player, China, sits on the fence.
Moscow-Bishkek rapprochement can stop democratization of Kyrgyzstan, and the Kyrgyz regime will resemble its neighbors’ authoritarian political regimes. In spite of shutting down the “Manas” base and potential rapprochement with Tashkent the U.S.A. will continue to democratize the Central Asian regimes and implement the programs and projects on civil society development. This will not be influenced by the change of the geopolitical situation in the region. The U.S.A. will turn a blind eye to violations of democratization processes only when it comes to Washington’s strategic interests.
February 18, 2009
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