|
THE U.S. POLICY TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN,
Director of the Caucasus Media Institute, Yerevan
There are no new tendencies or changes in the U.S. policy towards the South Caucasus after the new U.S. Administration has been formed.
Barack Obama has not worked out his South Caucasian policy yet. For the time being, the new U.S. authorities focus on overcoming the economic crisis.
The changes, which have recently taken place in the South Caucasus, are caused by two events. The first event is the 5-day Russia-Georgia war in August, 2008 and everything connected with it. The second one is the economic meltdown.
There has been some progress in Turkey-Russia-Armenia relations due to the change of Turkey’s role in the region. But the progress is only being discussed and has nothing to do with Mr. Obama’s coming to power in the U.S.A.
Now one can speak about some potential changes of the U.S. policy in the region. But this is nothing but assumptions.
The U.S. will not follow such a proactive policy towards Georgia as it did under President George W. Bush and which would be followed if John McCain had won the presidential election. I believe that Washington’s special attention to Tbilisi and the aid the U.S. provides to Georgia will neither stop nor change dramatically. However the U.S.-Georgia relations may change.
In Armenia a great deal depends on what will happen on 24 April, Armenian Genocide Commemoration Day. On that day, the American Presidents have addressed the U.S. citizens, who are ethnic Armenians, annually since the 1970s. The questionmarks are whether Mr. Obama will do so and whether the U.S. will raise the issue of recognition and condemnation of the Armenian genocide in Ottoman Empire. This theme was supported by some Democrats on the eve of the election, although the situation can change after the election.
This issue is of importance in terms of the U.S. domestic policy. The Armenian community is numerous and consolidated in America. On the other hand, it is of importance in terms of the U.S.-Turkey relations. Now Turkey and Armenia step up their efforts to interact with each other. However Turkey reacts nervously to a third country’s speaking on the subject of the Armenian genocide.
Turkey is an important country to the U.S., it is NATO member state and Washington’s ally in that bloc. Currently, the U.S.-Turkey relations are not too good because of worsening of Turkey-Israel relations. Some Israelis came to speak about the necessity to recognize the Armenian genocide. On 24 April it will be clear what policy the U.S. will pursue towards Armenia.
Azerbaijan is a country producing oil and ultimately, Central Asian oil and gas will go via it as transit goods. The questions are whether the Nabucco gas pipeline will be built, what this has to do with the economic crisis and what stance Baku will take towards the leading players in the South Caucasus region. There are many opportunities here. Certainly, the U.S. attitude to the South Caucasus will influence Azerbaijan’s foreign policy.
February 24, 2009
|
