Peter Rutland, Professor at Wesleyan University and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University

Alisher Khamidov shows an impressive grasp of the internal dynamics of Kyrgyzstan that led up to the violent events of this week. While there has been some speculation about the role of international actors in provoking the crisis, Khamidov is surely correct in focusing on the domestic causes of the unrest, rooted in economic stagnation and political corruption. Although he correctly notes some differences between the 2005 Tulip Revolution and the present, for this outsider, the similarities outweigh the differences.

The revolution was both unexpected and predictable. The revolution was predictable in the sense that the mis-steps of the Bakiev government were plain for all to see. Still, the toppling of his regime was unexpected, because such events are quite rare. In the former Soviet Union, the most recent example would be the unrest that occurred in Moldova after the disputed election in April 2009. The fact that Kyrgyzstan experienced one such revolution in 2005 makes it more likely that such action can be repeated - if it happened once, then it can happen again. But this also means that President Bakiev, knowing precisely what could happen, should have been able to take steps to head off the second revolution that removed him from power.  Yet it looks like he decided to launch a crackdown, arresting opposition leaders, without having taken steps to ensure that the security forces were united in their willingness to use ruthless force to maintain order.

The bloody and chaotic overthrow of the Bakiev regime is not good news for anybody. For Western liberals, it merely highlights the sorry conditions in Kyrgyzstan, the one country in Central Asia that had tried to follow Western advice about the benefits of democratization, market reform and free trade.  For Kyrgyzstan's authoritarian neighbors, it must be worrying to see that an incumbent ruler can lose control of the streets so quickly.  For they too face  the very same challenges of corruption, unemployment and price increases that brought down Bakiev.

April 9, 2010