The Kyrgyzstanis nearly destroyed the Belarusian democracy again.

At the very beginning of the last week a mourning blockade was imposed on Belarus. All the neighbouring countries lowered their flags in commemoration of the Polish politicians who had lost their lives in the plane crash near the Russian city of Smolensk. Only the Belarusian flag was not lowered.

Apart from that the Belarusian authorities gave the televiewers a surprise – they blocked the evening broadcast of the “Katyn” film by Andrzej Wajda on RTR channel. Instead of feeling the tragedy of the Polish military officers, who had been taken prisoners by the Red Army in 1939, the Belarusian viewers had to watch the “Dances on Ice” show.

This “show must go on” was severely criticized by the Belarusian opposition. There appeared a concept that Aliaksandr Lukashenka deliberately isolated the country from the global discussion, including the Joseph Stalin repressions.

The tales that the international isolation policy was followed and that the Belarusian officials were double-dyed Stalinists ceased to exist by the end of the week. The film by Andrzej Wajda was shown on one of the state TV channels.

At the same time Belarus was very active on the international scene interfering in the domestic affairs of Kyrgyzstan.

The 2005 Kyrgyz revolution significantly influenced the Belarusian society and the authorities. The reportages from Bishkek made the Belarusian opposition believe that Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime could be overthrown as Askar Akayev’s regime was.

Simultaneously the Belarusian authorities were concerned about the 2006 presidential election outcome. The Criminal Code was toughened: the responsibility for the activities within informal organizations became more serious, the mass media were censored in a tougher way, and a doubtful trial of some oppositionists (potential leaders of the Belarusian color revolution that might take place) was prepared.

History repeats itself. When commenting upon Kyrgyzstan’s events during his visit to the Gomel region, Aliaksandr Lukashenka imagined that they can occur in Belarus. He said: “Such actions by the Kyrgyz opposition are inadmissible. Such events cannot take place in Belarus”.

He stressed the artificial origin of such a phenomenon as the opposition in Belarus. Finally, he noted that the society mistrusted the government’s opponents. Like in 2005, on the eve of the local elections scheduled for April 25, the political reaction is in the air.

However this time Aliaksandr Lukashenka, while condemning the Kyrgyz opposition and, at the same time, praising the former President and his way of governance, sided with one of the parties to the conflict.

“The Kyrgyz oppositionists’ imprisoning Kurmanbek Bakiyev or shooting him down would backfire on them. And Kurmanbek Bakiyev should not be reproached for the fact that the authorities used force protecting themselves”, said the Belarusian President.

But the greatest sensation is that the former Kyrgyz President said that Minsk had invited him to Belarus as a political refugee.

Such an approach is at odds with the practice. Till now, in the event of political convulsions in one of the CIS countries, Belarus supported the previous regime in the mass media and nothing but. If the opposition won, the official press and the Foreign Ministry made a pause for the sake of propriety and then they saw in the “former agents of George Soros” serious policy-makers and representatives of the states with which Belarus connected the common future and forward-looking economic projects.

The idea to grant political asylum to Kurmanbek Bakiyev is a nonsense even if to consider it in the context of confronting with Russia. Minsk believes (not without reason) that its closest ally is involved in the Kyrgyz coup. Of course, soon Roza Otunbayeva will become the friend of the Belarusian people, like Viktor Yushchenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko were. Belarus’ demand for the Western credits would make its authorities unwilling to deal shortly with dissidents.

The case of Kurmanbek Bakiyev is consistent with the logic of the Belarusian authorities’ actions towards the plane crash near Smolensk. The decisions not to demonstrate the “Katyn” film and not to announce the mourning were made emotionally, to spite Moscow and Warsaw, without thinking about their consequences and about reaction of the society and the neighbouring countries. Later on “Katyn” was shown as well as reportages about the Belarusians grieving over the crash victims were made, thus a kind of ersatz of the official mourning was created.

For the time being the Belarusian authorities learn to follow the multivector policy they have proclaimed.

But such decision-making by the Belarusian authorities can lead to many funny incidents during the forthcoming presidential election campaign.

All we have to do is to find out what made Minsk feel so deep sympathy for Kurmanbek Bakiyev. This might be similarity of their actions: “He (Mr. Bakiyev), poor, asked for credits in different countries”, said Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

The author is a columnist of the Belarusian weekly newspaper “Nasha Niva”.

April 20, 2010