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RUSSIA-U.S.A. RELATIONS AND CENTRAL ASIA

ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies Department, Institute of the CIS Countries, Moscow
I believe that Central Asia wasn’t under discussion of the Russian and U.S. Presidents during the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow on July 6-8. Though, this discussion was highly expected in the countries of Central Asia. Before the Moscow summit Central Asian press was filled with information and speculations on how the Russian and U.S. leaders were going to divide spheres of interests in the region.
But in fact, Central Asia was discussed only in the frame of the Afghanistan problem. And the most important thing was the agreement on American military transit through the Russian territory, which was a big concession to the U.S.A. Such issues as the situation around the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan, negotiations between the U.S.A. and Tajikistan on the Ayni airbase building, and between the U.S.A. and Uzbekistan on the base in Navoi were just a background issues, and were left outside the Moscow summit agenda.
Russia made a concession on the issue of military transit, and its reaction to the transformation of the Manas base into a transit point for the American military cargo was quite calm. Moscow has the right to consider that it has made its move and now it’s the turn of Washington. It is not clear yet what the Americans are going to do. Negotiations on Ayni and Navoi are not a simple issue. It is not that easy as one can think to create military bases there. And it is not about China or Russia’s resistance: the establishment of Ayni and Navoi bases requires considerable financial and technological investments.
That’s why the establishment of military transit points in Ayni and Navoi are in a greater degree just a bluffing, aimed at securing the American presence in Manas. Manas base is the most important issue of negotiations on Central Asia among the U.S.A., China and Russia.
It is also an opportunity for Dushanbe and Tashkent to attract Americans with their logistical, transport and, what is more important, financial resources. Moreover, formally Russia can’t oppose to this process, because it itself gave the green light for the transit.
Currently, the U.S.A. is interested in build-up of their potential in Central Asia, because in fact they got nothing, but the Manas base. That’s why now we see some kind of bargaining between Russia and U.S.A. Moscow demonstrates that if there is a necessity it can successfully press for withdrawal of American forces from the base in Kyrgyzstan, thus a basis for the negotiations has been created: if you support “colour revolutions” in the CIS, your military base can be liquidated in six months.
Central Asian states try to pursue a multi-vector policy. But this independence at some point has its limits. Central Asian states are dependant on Russia’s transit system though which they can export their natural resources to Europe. The U.S.A. perfectly realizes that and tries to put pressure on Russia and China by means of negotiations on Ayni and Navoi. But Russia is not surprised with actions of the American side.
The thing is that Russia is interested in maintenance of at least minimal level of stability in Afghanistan. And the U.S.A. is trying to deal with this problem. Russia, as the Moscow summit shows, is still interested in the presence of the American forces in Afghanistan.
July 10, 2009
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