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JOHN  MARONE, KYIV
UKRAINE’S LOSE-LOSE MENTALITY

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There is an old joke in Ukraine: two Ukrainians find a bottle containing a genie who grants them each a wish. The first Ukrainian requests and gets what he wants; the second Ukrainian uses his wish to cancel the wish of his countryman. The joke is that envy to the detriment of one's own interests is part of the Ukrainian national character. Certainly this seems to be the case with the country’s politicians.

Last week, two lawmakers from the paper-thin Orange majority in parliament declared that they had left its ranks. The coalition, which represents an uneasy if not entirely farcical alliance between President Viktor Yushchenko and his former comrade during the country's 2004 Orange Revolution, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, only had a two-seat majority in the first place. Clearly neither the president nor the premier are apparently in control of the legislature. If President Yushchenko was behind the two deputies' decision, he has effectively shot himself in the foot in order to scare Tymoshenko with the sound of the gun.

Everyone knows that Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are slugging it out for popularity and power in advance of next year's presidential poll. As a result, parliament, together with most other bodies of power in Ukraine, has become largely dysfunctional. But Yushchenko can no more afford to try and dismiss the Tymoshenko government than she can afford to quit: Ukrainians are tired of the string of repeat elections that they have had foisted on them under Yushchenko, whose one-time cult status as the nation's 'messiah' has been eclipsed by Tymoshenko's personal brand of feisty populism.

So, instead, the green-eyed president has set upon a campaign to spoil Ms. Tymoshenko's populist stage show from behind the curtains. The problem is that the Ukrainian electorate remembers only too well similar scenes in Orange Ukraine’s seemingly never-ending political drama.

After being fired by Yushchenko in 2005, Tymoshenko returned a year later to trounce the president's Our Ukraine party in the 2006 parliamentary elections. Fearful of Tymoshenko's presidential ambitions, Yushchenko allowed the villain of the Orange Revolution, former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, to become premier instead. Moscow friendly Yanukovych promptly began challenging Yushchenko's executive authority until the latter managed to call a repeat election, which returned Tymoshenko to power.

And despite the facade of Orange solidarity the orange politicians tried to sell to the public during and since the repeat parliamentary elections in 2007, nothing has changed in the relationship. Tymoshenko keeps trying to win over more voters with generous deeds such as returning Soviet-era savings lost to hyper inflation, while Yushchenko has prevented her from financing the largess by blocking the government's privatization plan.

As a result, both politicians can share some of the blame for the country's skyrocketing inflation. However, the economy isn't the only victim of Orange political infighting. Yushchenko again appears willing to sacrifice the Orange majority in parliament in order to take down Tymoshenko in the process.

Interestingly, the luring of lawmakers from their factions was used on Yushchenko himself last year by former Primer Minister Yanukovych, who tried to turn his majority (226 out of 450 seats) into a constitutional majority (300 out of 450 seats). Yushchenko called the tactic "unconstitutional" and reacted by pushing through fresh elections. Then, earlier this year, a handful of loyalists in the pro-presidential Our Ukraine party left the party to create a new one, although they stopped short of quitting the Orange coalition.

It’s as if the president has been trying to slowly push the Orange coalition to the edge of a cliff before gathering the nerve to push it off together with Tymoshenko. At the same time, Mr. Yushchenko has taken care to publicly maintain his distance from the inter-factional intrigue, for fear of public outrage.

Speaking during a visit to Russia on Friday, he dismissed the suggestion that the departure of the two lawmakers from the majority meant an end to the Orange coalition. "This is not a legal basis for talking about the dissolution of the coalition," he said. "The parliamentary majority is fit for battle and will continue to operate," he added.

The fact that the two lawmakers who recently quit the coalition are, respectively, from Tymoshenko's BYuT faction and Interior Minister Yury Lutsenko’s People’s Self Defense (which partnered with the pro-presidential Our Ukraine during the last election) makes for a convenient alibi for Yushchenko. Both maverick MPs duly denied any political motivation for their actions, roundly blaming the policies of Tymoshenko & Co. for their decisions, instead.

At the same time, other members of Our Ukraine (which includes many lawmakers only nominally loyal to Mr. Yushchenko) appear to have been caught off guard by the actions of the two MPs. For their part, BYuT and People's Self Defense are reluctant to start making accusations, as this would raise the question as to how the disloyal lawmakers were included on the party lists in the first place.

So, ironically, Tymoshenko has to maintain the same awkward air of innocence before voters as Mr. Yushchenko has done. Like the president, she cannot allow herself to be seen as the one who destroyed the Orange coalition, which once represented justice, better living standards and equality for a majority of Ukrainians.

"I am scared by today's situation," she claimed in Kyiv on Friday, "scared because politicians sometimes don't take responsibility for any of their words, for any of their public impulses, for any of their decisions, which appear to be only situational and maybe even harmful for Ukraine at this stage, but which nevertheless have a political aim."

Parliamentary speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk, another Yushchenko loyalist who nevertheless has a mind (and a career) of his own, tried to play the whole affair down. He announced on Monday that only factions can exit a coalition, not individual lawmakers. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the announcement by the two deputies was "a very bad sign for the coalition." He also predicted that the instability wouldn't end soon. "Nothing is likely to change until the coalition comes to its senses and lawmakers start making compromises," he said during a trip to Greece.

Instability has in fact been the only constant in the Yushchenko presidency. More importantly, there is little reason to doubt that any resolution that emerges down the road will not quickly lead to yet another power crisis. President Yushchenko has long been rumored to be planning a grand coalition between his loyalists in the coalition and the business wing of Yanukovych's Regions faction. Along the way we might see a no-confidence vote against the government, or at least the firing of Lutsenko. It's the president who hires and fires the interior minister, and Lutsenko has moved out of the president's orbit of influence. In a political environment where victory only comes at the expense of one’s opponents, or indeed one’s allies, everyone stands a chance of losing something.

John Marone, a columnist of Eurasian Home website, Kyiv, Ukraine

June 11, 2008



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