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NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA: NO STRATEGIC PARTNERS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
The attitude of the European Union to Moscow has become more negative. The alliance of Russia, Germany and France that tries to introduce Russia into the EU activities can come to an end after the probable resignation of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder this autumn.
Angela Merkel, a potential German Chancellor, makes it clear that unlike Gerhard Schroeder she will not sit down at the negotiating table with Russia without participation of the Poles and other Eastern Europeans. Germany might yield its precedence in the EU's Russian policy to Poland and start to incline France to improve the relationships between EU and the USA. In other words the future leaders of the EU will try to save the transatlantic relationships in the first place. They believe that the further weakening of the EU will not decrease the US interest in its European allies. The Europeans pin their hopes on the alliance in which they have felt extremely comfortable for the last fifty years. Russia with its authoritarian regime does not fit in this traditional concept.
The new EU members, the former Warsaw Treaty countries, have already started to influence the EU foreign policy towards Russia and the CIS. The Kaliningrad meeting of the Russian, German and French leaders made a great fuss in the West since the Presidents of Poland and the Baltic States had not been invited there.
It is clear that the EU is spitted up in its attitude towards Russia. The core Europe backs up the strategic partnership with Moscow and the new members of the European Union advocate its containment.
The EU came to realize that it had managed to affect the Ukrainian events, to show the “neoimperial” Russia its place, and to move its sphere of influence deep into the former USSR. However, the EU seems to be incapable of imposing democracy and liberal reforms on Ukraine if it resists that. During the new “gas war” between Kyiv and Moscow the West did not support Ukraine and insisted that Yushchenko should settle himself that problem with Russia. Europe is still not interested in the GUAM-like project where Russia will have the leading role.
The current energetic alliance that Gerhard Schroeder built with Russia might be altered and the new German government under the pressure of Poland and the Baltic States might abandon its plans to lay the gas pipeline on the Baltic Sea bed. The powerful forces in the new EU countries are striving for sending Russian energy fluxes to the West through as many European countries as possible including Ukraine.
After Gerhard Schroeder’s resignation and possible weakening of French President Jacques Chirac Vladimir Putin will lose his strategic allies in the EU. In Poland there may come to power such conservatives, that Russia’s critic Alexander Kwasniewski would seem Moscow’s best friend as compared to them. That is why Vladimir Putin does his utmost to strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and tries to make China the strategic ally of Russia.
Even though hitherto the EU could have had global projects involving the CIS countries, now becomes clear that it will unlikely implement them. The EU has been dealt a serious blow. The European Constitution has failed. The political integration of the EU has been challenged. The European politicians resumed the debates whether the EU should focus on economic integration only (as Great Britain suggests) and abandon France and Germany’s plan to turn the EU into self-sufficient political actor.
While building the “EU-Europe” confederation the decomposing France-Germany axis can be replaced only with Great Britain. However, there is a huge ambiguity in its vision of EU.
Can the EU countries take a break after all dramatic events and to decide what to do next? Time is pressing. Firstly, the countries of the Western and Eastern Balkans are about to become the EU members. Turkey and Ukraine will wish to enter the EU more and more. Brussels must response to all this. It means that the EU enlargement will continue to be a thorny question.
The EU is destined to carry out reforms. With its social and economic problems, with its senescent population and without economic growth the EU can not afford any more financial assistance to less wealthy Eastern European countries. However, the EU does not wish to withdraw into itself. So, all the countries would have to share the burden.
Nowadays there are no politicians in the EU who have strong beliefs and strategic views. There are no charismatic leaders who can guide their peoples. The insipid Brussels bureaucrats get more and more power. They can not build new Europe on its calls for order and discipline.
What is in store for Europe? Will the old transatlantic alliance be recovered as Western leaders want it? Will the EU (with the leadership of Great Britain and the support of future German and French governments) be dissolved in transatlantic policy and become a faithful adherent of United State’s global policy in a unipolar world? This scenario will strengthen the traditional Western institutions, the NATO and the OSCE. Then Ukraine and Georgia will not have to join the EU in order to become Western countries. Their entering the NATO will be enough. In return, this will push Russia to join Asian alliances.
Europe irresponsibly refuses to even informally integrate with Eurasia that has many natural resources essential for Western countries. Apparently, the EU is not willing to give up its principles. Strategic partnership with Russia will be examined in the light of liberal values even greater. In its present state Russia is not a true partner for the West.
Alexander Rahr, Director of the Russia/CIS programme at the German Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin
"Nezavisimaya Gazeta", July 28, 2005
Translated by "Eurasian Home"
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