VITALY BALA

Ukraine's issue in the context of Russia-EU relations is not of current importance. As regards the foreign-policy issues, the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence is of the greatest significance to Moscow now.

ARCHIL GEGESHIDZE

The EU-Russia relations are of importance to Tbilisi, above all, in terms of non-recognition of the status-quo after the war between Georgia and Russia.

VALERY KARBALEVICH

Europe concluded that its previous tactics (democratization demand, sanctions toward Belarus’ authorities, support for the opposition) were inefficient. Poland and Lithuania urged the EU to change its policy towards Minsk. Germany is also interested in development of economic relations with Belarus.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

Russia-Ukraine gas conflict has led to reinforcement of the EU's activities in the post-Soviet area.

VASILE TARLEV

I believe that the initiative to sign the new European Security Treaty that is to unite all the states of the Euro-Atlantic world fully meets Moldova’s foreign-policy doctrine. Moreover, Moldova is interested in creating such a mechanism more than other European countries.

SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV

Minsk has recently supported the EU’s new foreign-policy program “Eastern Partnership” and has already confirmed its readiness to formalize the program jointly with the European Commission, said Andrey Popov, spokesman for the Belarusian Foreign Ministry.

ALEXANDER RONDELI

The decision of the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting not to allow Georgia to join NATO Membership Action Plan did not surprise Tbilisi or anybody else. Georgia has received an annual plan for 2009, but its substance is not known. 

SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV

Russia’s attempt to make the parties sign the “Kozak memorandum” again was strongly opposed by the West. Asif Chaudhry, the U.S. ambassador to Moldova, stated on 24 November that it made no sense to return to that document.

DMITRY TRENIN, ALEXEI ARBATOV

According to Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev, the armed conflict between Georgia and Russia has changed the world. This may be an exaggeration, but in fact the war has changed the Russian foreign policy, it deeply influences Russia’s economy and Moscow's relations with the West and the New Independent States.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

The USA, where the presidential election campaign goes full swing, tries to take the toughest possible line with Russia. In many respects that is why some American government officials seek to support Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili.

VLADIMIR CHIZHOV

The outcome of the extraordinary EU summit held on September 1 in Brussels was more or less predictable, both in terms of the views expressed by the EU member states and in terms of the EU Presidency conclusion.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

Yesterday I could say that in Europe there were differences in relation to Russia’s actions in South Ossetia. Some countries blamed Georgia for the conflict, others blamed Russia. But at present there is a different tendency.

ALEXANDER BORISENKO

KONSTANTIN KOSACHEV

Speaking about the prospects of the negotiations on a new agreement, I would like to be wrong, but I think they will take a substantial amount of time. Now Russia has to negotiate with 27 EU members, not 12 as in 1994.

VLADIMIR CHIZHOV

The summit in the Russian city of Khanty-Mansiysk is the twenty first EU-Russia summit. The opening of negotiations on a new base agreement between Russia and the EU will be one of the main issues at the Khanty-Mansiysk summit.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

Vladimir Putin’s visit to France is quite unique. In a week new Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev is to arrive in France and Germany. It looks like Prime Minister Putin overshadows President Medvedev. During his visit to Paris Vladimir Putin shows the world leaders that he is in charge of the Russian foreign policy.

ANDREY KOKOSHIN, FIRST DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE STATE DUMA COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES; FYODOR LUKYANOV, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF "RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS" MAGAZINE

"The change consists in the fact that Russia can no longer influence the domestic policy of its neighbors. When that became clear Russia chose the pragmatic approach," Fyodor Lukyanov.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

ALEKSANDRA DOKUCHAEVA

It should be noted that the new President has been brought to power by nationalistic groups. So, the ethnic policy is unlikely to change dramatically.

SERGEI KARAGANOV

Сriticism towards Russia is not an attack, but a counterattack of a weakening West that defends its positions.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

As to the influence of the new French President upon the EU policy towards Russia, from now on Russia will have to consider the EU's opinion.

EUGENIA OBICHKINA

As for the second round of the presidential elections in France, we can try to make prognosis about the possible frontrunner but we cannot predict the results with 100% probability.

ARNAUD DUBIEN

Several days before the presidential election there is much uncertainty. The recent presidential election polls show that about 18 mln voters haven’t made their choice or can still change their mind, which is unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

I believe that there will be no Cold War between Russia and the West. Though there are many misunderstandings connected with the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech in Munich.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

The German EU presidency will most likely give a chance to stabilize Russia-EU relations and establish strategic partnership.

VIKTOR MIRONENKO

NIKOLAY BUKHARIN

Poland’s demarche will make the atmosphere of the forthcoming Russia-EU Summit nervous. But I think that the embargo’s lifting will not be a central issue at the meeting of the European leaders.

YURY BORKO

Participants of the EU summit will focus on security of energy supply issues. But there is little chance that Russia and its European partners will reach any agreement in principle.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

Russian President’s proposal to direct the gas stream from Shtokman deposit to Europe’s market should be viewed in a broader context.   

EUGENY GOLIKOV

The presidential election transfer from Riigikogu to the Electoral College shouldn’t be regarded as procrastination. This is rather an established procedure typical for Estonian political system.

VICTOR MIRONENKO

The relations between Russia and EU today are cooler than ever, they are in the state of limbo “between war and peace”. 

PAVEL OSINTSEV

Now improvement of the Russian-German relations is evident, since there appear new issues on which the both states can work out mutually beneficial conditions of the cooperation.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

The fact that the city of Tomsk is visited by one of the most important and largest German delegations emphasizes significance for Germany to develop the relations with Russia.

ALEKSANDR RAHR

I believe that Angela Merkel’s visit to Russia is of great importance. She will put her own mark on the relationship between Russia and Germany. On the one hand, Germany’s policy towards Russia is going to be changed. Under Merkel, Germany seeks to be the closest friend of the USA, as Great Britain is. Unlike France, Germany is not going to act as Russia’s main advocate in the EU.

VASILY LIKHACHYOV

The main component in the agenda of the upcoming Russia-EU Summit would be the discussion of the four Road Maps.

IGOR MAKSIMYCHEV

At their recent meetings Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his opposition challenger Angela Merkel have confirmed that they are determined to prevent any setbacks in their bilateral relations and to keep them at the level that had been achieved in the last seven years, regardless of the outcome of the elections. After all, it had taken the two countries 50 years to become close partners.

THIERRY DE MONTBRIAL

Thierry de Montbrial, director of the French Institute of International Relations, is perhaps the best French expert on Russia and far from the last one in Europe. A talk with him enables one to get a clear idea of the current situation in Europe, which is being torn by disputes over its borders, asking the question, who, why and for what reason can be considered a European?

ALEXEI MAKARKIN

Growing competition in the CIS proclaims itself, above all, during high-level political events. This was demonstrated during the recent summit in Artek attended by the presidents of Ukraine, Georgia, Poland and Lithuania who announced plans for a Baltic-Caspian-Black Sea union. Clearly, it aims to create an alternative center of influence in the former USSR supported by Poland's ambitions to be an informal leader of the new members of "united Europe." Participants in this emerging bloc of CIS countries (Ukraine in the first place) hope to establish positive relations with the EU, which may in the distant future help them achieve their cherished dream - integration into Europe.

IGOR MAKSIMYCHEV

Germany is gearing up for the possible victory in the early Bundestag elections due in September of the Christian Democrat-Christian Social Union and their allies in the Free Democratic Party. Apart from guessing who will be in the team of CDU head Angela Merkel, some commentators point to possible changes in Berlin's policy. If Merkel is elected chancellor, it is difficult to give a straight answer to the question of the form Germany's relations with Russia would take, but we can assume that the opposition coming to power does not mean an abrupt policy volte-face unless absolutely needed.

FYODOR LUKYANOV

The Russian government’s refusal to invite the Presidents of Poland and Lithuania to celebrate a 750-year anniversary of Kaliningrad can be interpreted as Russia’s desire to show the new Europe that it has more important and influential friends in the EU. The leaders of Germany and France Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac were invited to the celebrations of Kaliningrad's 750th anniversary.

NIKOLAI KAVESHNIKOV

The future of the European Constitution is becoming increasingly gloomy after the referendum in the Netherlands. The Dutch refused to support the dreams and ambitions of politicians and chances for a repeat voting are minimal.

KONSTANTIN KOSACHEV

The relationships between Europe and Russia are of current interest for evident reasons. For Russia May can be called a month of Europe. It is due to the 60-year anniversary of victory in the World War II, the Russia-European Union Summit that took place in Moscow on May 10, and the Council of Europe Summit that will take place on May 16-17, in which Russia is going to participate.

SERGEI KARAGANOV

A major problem the Russian people and the Russian nation are facing is the relations with the EU, which embodies Europe in political, social and ideological terms. Relations with Europe have and will determine Russia's self-identification and development.

BORIS SHMELEV

Russia and Europe have been discussing their relations for centuries and will not stop soon. Their relations can be analyzed in the philosophical, political, cultural and historical context, and the conclusion is always the same: The history of the two parties is closely interlinked and their reciprocal influence is without parallel.

When the Arab emirate Dubai was on the verge of bankruptcy, the international financial speculators became worried. The rating agencies simultaneously came to correct their assessments. The bankers started to check if their debtors were solvent. Another financial crisis is in the air. It turned out that not only Ireland and Latvia, but also Greece and Spain face a default. Iceland has already become bankrupt.

The East European countries began celebrating jubilees, the historians and political scientists in the Western countries hold conferences and discussions: twenty years have passed since the “autumn revolutions”, which started the democratic epoch in the former Communist countries. It is the worst time to observe the anniversary. The new regimes in Eastern Europe are suffering acute social, economic and political crises.

While the world leaders are slightly optimistic about the economic recovery in the Western countries, Eastern Europe prepares for the next wave of the crisis. The states are short of money to indemnify for their budgets and to support businessmen, a lot of companies stand on the verge of bankruptcy, the population’s employment and incomes continue to fall, and the demand slackens.

The result of the Russia-Ukraine gas conflict, which broke out by tradition on New Year's Eve, is quite predictable – the Russian gas will be supplied to the European consumers but Gazprom’s reputation has been seriously tarnished. In one of the most severe winters Europe does not receive gas, and though Russia tries to shift the blame onto Ukraine (its state collapse is evident), Moscow is also responsible for the conflict.

The typical criticism of the UK’s Foreign Office is the one eloquently expressed in John Le Carre’s The Constant Gardener - that they are pitiless practitioners of real-politik who care more about stability than idealism, and who only really work to protect the interests of British corporations, rather than British values. But on Russia, the Foreign Office seems to have erred on the other side.

Who would think that a banal song contest like Eurovision can trigger new round of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. When Kyiv won the right to host the finals of the 50^th Eurovision contest, Moscow was sick with envy and spent millions to catch up with the Western neighbor. It cost Russia several expensive but futile attempts. And finally at Eurovision 2008 Russian pop singer Dima Bilan won the contest.

The British Council has finally bowed to the inevitable and suspended its operations in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg. I don’t see why it tried to continue operations when the government had made it clear it wasn’t welcome – you can’t operate in a country unless the government wants you there.

I don’t understand why Vladimir Putin feels the need to be so belligerent and obnoxious in international relations. OK, he’s aggressively asserting Russia’s new economic power, and it plays well with some insecure people at home who prefer to be ‘feared’ by foreign powers rather than free in their own country. But there’s no need to be so belligerent, and ultimately it defeats his own aims.

It is hard to believe but in the beginning of the XXI century the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact has come to the forefront of the political agenda. It is no longer only the historians but journalists and statesmen in Russia, Baltic and Western states who allude to the Pact. Russia’s president Putin is at loggerheads with the Estonian journalists, Estonian MPs appeal to the EU...

If the EU is having trouble finding a common language with the Kremlin, what does this mean for Ukraine, which continues to awkwardly straddle the east-west divide in search of stability? Friday’s Russia-EU summit in Samara was supposed to address touchy issues like human rights and energy supplies. But judging by the press conference held thereafter, both sides agreed not to agree.

Last week, the Kremlin signed a deal with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan that apparently stymies the mooted Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which the EU was hoping would free up some Turkmen gas from the bear hug of the Kremlin. Instead, it looks like for the time being, all Turkmen gas will be exported via Gazprom.  

The European Union is increasingly anxious about being over-reliant on gas imports from Russia. The Kremlin, it is clear, intends to wield its huge oil and gas reserves as its main bargaining chip in foreign relations. The EU is concerned that its authoritarian neighbour to the east has it “over a barrel”, as one British MP put it.

President of the EU Commission Jose Manuel Barroso flies to Sochi today for an EU-Russia summit with president Putin in Sochi. Diplomats say they will discuss energy relations between the two countries, at a time when these relations could hardly be worse.

President Putin’s trip to London almost got off to a bad start this week, when Kommersant carried a front-page story about a new tax investigation by the General Prosecutor’s office into the British Council.

Recently President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, who is thought to be Gazprom’s key lobbyist, announced the Kremlin’s decision to join the OPEC cartel and become a vital component of that organization.

When European Union leaders convene in Brussels for a summit meeting on October 15-16, they will have little option but to conclude to bury the hatchet with Russia over Georgia.

A top European Union diplomatic mission, headed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, will be in Moscow on September 8 to meet with President Dmitry Medvedev about the Georgia crisis, before flying to Tbilisi.

What began on August 7 as a reckless act of aggression by Georgia to bludgeon South Ossetia into submission, quickly escalated to Russian military intervention in Georgia, and the conflict's transformation into a proxy war between the U.S. and Moscow.

Talks between Russia and Europe are so stymied by mutual suspicion that only a "big deal" can break the deadlock, says Timofei Bordachev. Cooperation over energy is a great opportunity to set bilateral relations on a whole new course.

The 10-year Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the Russian Federation and the European Union, which served to deepen and broaden relations between the parties, expired on November 30, 2007.

Days before the NATO summit in Bucharest began, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili rolled out a new peace initiative for breakaway Abkhazia.

Central to Moscow’s agenda is a proposal to weaken the OSCE’s election monitoring work, which Russia blames for helping to usher in pro-Western governments in Ukraine and Georgia.

What Europe does want to do is to support democratic reforms in former Soviet states like Georgia and Ukraine, and push for change in autocracies like Belarus.

Talking to press  Sarkozy said that the two countries will develop cooperation on energy issues and that significant progress has been made in resolving disagreements over Iran's nuclear program.

Far from offering the warm embrace shown Moscow by his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, the 52-year-old Sarkozy has been nothing short of blunt in expressing his views on Russia.

EU must ask itself what it wants in Ukraine, the South Caucasus and the Caspian, and it must ask itself what it will contribute in order to get it.

The attitude of the European Union to Moscow has become more negative. The alliance of Russia, Germany and France that tries to introduce Russia into the EU activities can come to an end after the probable resignation of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder this autumn.