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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN
ANTON MOROZOV,
Head of the Department of Social and Political Studies of the Kazakh Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty
There are several reasons for the “Nur Otan” party’s sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan.
Firstly, “Nur Otan” is a presidential party. During its election campaign “Nur Otan” relied on incontestable authority of President Nursultan Nazarbayev. The Kazakh people regard Nazarbayev as a stability guarantor, and “Nur Otan” party’s success showed the high presidential rating.
This time the situation like that in 2005, when the presidential election was held, has been repeated. Then Nursultan Nazarbayev took 91 percent of the votes.
Secondly, the election campaign should have been conducted for only two months. So, the political parties did not have enough time to prepare for them.
Thirdly, the Kazakh opposition is weak. According to the public opinion polls, before the parliamentary elections the “Nur Otan” party’s rating was 60-75 percent, those of the opposition parties (“Ak Zhol” and National Social Democratic Party) – 7 percent.
The National Social Democratic Party announced itself to be the only opposition party that is able to compete with the “Nur Otan” party and, in fact, with President Nazarbayev. But it is clear that the party leaders and the President are incomparable in terms of their popularity ratings. The strategy of the National Social Democratic Party was wittingly losing.
Such a tactics was chosen by Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, leader of the National Social Democratic Party, in the presidential elections of 2005. He lost the elections then, and now he has made the same mistake.
As regards the “Ak Zhol” party, much dirt, the National Social Democratic Party had dug upon it, also played its part. “Ak Zhol” failed to change its reputation as quasiopposition or puppet opposition.
I did not expect opposition’s loss. The local authorities made their contribution to that – there was electoral fraud during the elections, but the international observers consider the acts of fraud to be insignificant.
On the whole, the opposition itself is to blame for the loss.
The central authorities would like the opposition to be elected to the Parliament. Earlier it was difficult to imagine that the opposition parties had access to live broadcast and central newspapers during the election campaigns.
For all that, the vote rigging hits the central authorities’ prestige and discredit the elections. It follows that the local authorities did the central authorities more harm than good. I believe that for this reason the “Nur Otan” party should judge all the violators and punish them firmly.
Of course, the President’s opponents, especially those who are against Kazakhstan’s holding the OSCE chair will take advantage of the election returns. Former son-in-law of the President Rakhat Aliyev may raise this issue in Europe. He has connections in the EU countries since he was an ambassador in Vienna and a representative of the Republic of Kazakhstan in various international organizations.
The question is whether Kazakhstan needs the OSCE chairmanship. Who wants Kazakhstan’s chairmanship more – Astana or the OSCE?
August 22, 2007
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