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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN: NEW “OLD” MODEL FOR THE NEW INDEPENDENT STATES
ELENA YATSENKO,
President of the Eurasia Heritage Foundation, Moscow
The “Nur Otan” party headed by President Nursultan Nazarbayev swept the early parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan with the outcome of 88.5 percent of the votes[1]. Such results were so unexpected that many political analysts, who spoke about the success of the democratic reforms in Kazakhstan, are lost in the interpretation of the outcome.
The “Nur Otan”’s victory shows that the majority of the Kazakhs pin their hopes on President Nazarbayev as their national leader. Under Nazarbayev’s rule, 16 years ago, Kazakhstan became independent, though he did not sign the Belovezhskaya Pushcha agreements and was against the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, it was Nazarbayev who fixed the present boundaries of the Republic of Kazakhstan and made it sovereign. Besides, he could stop development of the nationalistic movements, thus preventing many ethnic Russians and people of other non-titular ethnic origins from leaving the country. Thanks to Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan has become a leading country in the Central Asian region. So, on August 18, the Kazakh people voted for Nazarbayev rather than for the “Nur Otan” party’s program.
However, in two Kazakh capitals, centers of the country’s political and economic life – Astana and Almaty – the results differ from those of the other regions. Two hours after the polling stations had been closed it was known that in Astana the turnout was 39.13 percent and in Almaty – 22.51 percent (for example, in the Almaty region the turnout was 90.12 percent).
The Central Election Committee of Kazakhstan stated that the opposition National Social Democratic Party took 10.6 percent of the votes in Astana and 21.5 percent in Almaty. It means that in the cities the opposition voters live, who support the program of the National Social Democratic Party, and whose opinion has to be taken into consideration by the winners. Otherwise, the sidelined part of the Kazakh political elite can become dissidents refusing to constructively cooperate with the authorities. Those opposition leaders who leave their country lose influence at home. At best, they peacefully live out their days in Europe, while their ideas, experience, connections can be of use to Kazakhstan.
The opposition parties’ failure is a result of the so-called “administrative resource” which was used by the local authorities to demonstrate their readiness to churn out the best results as well as of the clarity of the election program of the “Nur Otan” party.
May the “ghost” of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union take shape in Kazakhstan? Yes, it may, but here we should note that Kazakhstan is the most Europe-oriented state in Central Asia, and yet, Asian one.
You needn’t go far. For example, in the Asia Pacific region there are political systems (the former socialist Laos, Vietnam) with the one-party parliaments like in Kazakhstan. The excellent example of “the multi-party system with predominance of one party” is Japan where the Liberal Democratic Party is the major one. It always takes the number of votes allowing it to form the one-party government. Nevertheless, the society looks pluralistic because various political parties and associations work freely and each political force has its niche. However, Japan has never had the opposition equal to the ruling party. With the majority of the parliamentary seats the Liberal Democratic Party tries to avoid the direct conflicts with the opposition and prefers reaching a consensus in accordance with the Japanese political culture.
A similar political model is being formed in Thailand. The Thai Rak Thai (the Thais like the Thais) party won the recent parliamentary elections that were held on February 6, 2005. The Thai parliament is bicameral. Thai Rak Thai got 399 out of 500 parliamentary seats while the major opposition Democratic Party of Thailand – only 80. After that the opposition leader Baniat Bantadtan resigned saying that from then on the political struggle was senseless. Thai Rak Thai got the absolute constitutional majority in the parliament. In this connection for the first time in 73 years the winners formed the one-party cabinet in Thailand. Thaksin Shinawatra, the Thai Rak Thai’s leader, became the prime-minister.
As regards Central Asian political models, in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan one-party systems have been formed.
For Kazakhstan it is important now to work out the checks and balances in the parliament. Otherwise, the parliament will become a machine for making laws pleasing to the President’s retinue.
Unfortunately, it took place in the Soviet times.
August 24, 2007
[1]On August 17-19, President of the Eurasia Heritage Foundation Elena Yatsenko took part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization International Observers Mission during the parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan.
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