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VISIT OF TURKMEN PRESIDENT GURBANGULY BERDIMUHAMEDOV TO AZERBAIJAN
DMITRY VERKHOTUROV,
Independent journalist, Moscow
The purpose of Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Azerbaijan was to resolve the issue of the sector division of the Caspian Sea. This was the major purpose.
The fact is that the Transcaspian pipeline cannot be constructed without resolving this issue. If Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan come to terms with each other about the Caspian Sea division, all the other Caspian projects can be implemented.
Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have already reached an agreement about the demarcation of the Caspian Sea bottom. So far this demarcation scheme (according to the modified middle line) is not accepted by Turkmenistan and Iran. Actually, if Ashgabat and Baku achieve an agreement and Turkmenistan joins the system created, then Iran will have to admit the Caspian Sea division.
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan’s agreement is not at odds with Russia’s interests. On the contrary, it does Moscow good. Another issue is Russia does not take advantage of that.
For example, Russia held shares in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project, but it has sold them. Now Russia is empty-handed, but could ship oil via Olya port, let it pass through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and then supply oil to Europe without going through the Black Sea straits. Russia could produce gas together with Turkmenistan and participate in the gas supplies through the Transcaspian gas pipeline and other routes.
Russia and Turkmenistan have concluded an agreement that is valid until 2028. In this sense, Moscow and Ashgabat are the strategic partners and Russia has every opportunity to join the Turkmen energy projects.
If Gazprom chooses, it can take part in the construction of the Transcaspian pipeline and supply the equipment, pipes, ships for the pipeline laying, train the experts etc.
Of course, the route will go bypassing Russia, which partially violates Russia’s monopoly of the Central Asian resources supplies. But the Transcaspian project throughput capacity is much lower (20-30 billion cubic meters can be pumped through it annually) than that of the existing pipelines via Ukraine (120 billion cubic meters annually).
The USA and the EU are interested in this project but do not take active part in it. They want only a pipeline stably supplying energy resources to Europe.
May 21, 2008
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