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THE CASPIAN SEA STATUS AND THE NABUCCO PROJECT: THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND TURKMENISTAN
ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV,
Head of the International Relations Department, Gafgaz University, Baku
On April 22, a regular meeting of the representatives of the Caspian countries on determination of the Caspian Sea legal status was over. The next, twenty third meeting is decided to be held in Baku.
In spite of the fact that no specific decisions on the Caspian Sea status were made at the meeting, this issue may be solved in the near future because the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have improved.
The problem of the Caspian Sea status arose after the collapse of the Soviet Union when four new littoral states appeared in the Caspian region – Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Previously, the relations between the Soviet Union and Iran concerning the Caspian Sea had been determined by the 1921 and 1940 agreements.
The first differences between the Caspian countries occurred in 1991. Each country proceeded from its own interests. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan came out for the division of the Caspian Sea since they were interested in the soonest possible development of the sea deposits.
Russia and Iran, whose main energy beds are outside the Caspian Sea, are concerned about their security. Both of those countries are against the presence of the third countries, above all the USA, at the Caspian Sea. That’s why they oppose the use of the sea oil and gas fields, until the status of the sea is resolved, which prevents foreign companies from taking part in that.
Turkmenistan took an interest in transportation of the energy resources to the Western markets via the Caspian Sea rather than in the development of its sea deposits. However, the tensions between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in the middle of the 1990’s on some issues worsened the relations.
The tensions began when Azerbaijan’s debt on the supplies of Turkmenistan’s natural gas was being assessed. But the major reason for the relations rupture was the determination of belonging of the sea oil field on the frontier between the two countries “Kyapaz” (the Azerbaijani name) or “Sardar” (the Turkmen name). In 1997 Azerbaijan signed the contract with the Russian “LUKOIL” and “ROSNEFT” companies on the establishment of the consortium on that deposit development. But after Turkmenistan’s interference, the consortium has never started working.
In its turn, Turkmenistan signed the contract with “Mobil” company. This company could not start working either because it was not clear who really possessed the deposit. There were stopped the works financed by the USA and carried out by Turkmenistan to determine the potential construction of the Transcaspian pipeline. Turkmenistan recalled its ambassador from Baku and introduced visa regulations for Azerbaijan.
After Vladimir Putin had become President, Russia’s position on the Caspian Sea status changed. In May 2002, Russia reached an agreement on the division of the sea bottom with Kazakhstan and in a month the same agreement was concluded with Azerbaijan. On September 23, 2002 those countries signed the tripartite agreement.
Russia became the only Caspian country that delimited its sea borders. One of the reasons is the necessity for Russia to explore the large oil field “Khvalyn” in the Russian part of the Caspian Sea.
However, Turkmenistan and Iran’s positions on the Caspian Sea remained unchanged. More than that, in 2002 there was a sea conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran. A prospecting ship explored the seabed in the south of the Azerbaijan part of the Caspian Sea in order to discover hydrocarbon reserves at the oil- and gas-bearing deposits “Araz”, “Alov” and “Sharg”. The Iranian warships impeded the works and forced the Azerbaijani ship to leave that part of the sea. The explorations of the deposits have never been resumed.
Only after Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov had been elected President of Turkmenistan, the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan began improving. From the very first days of his presidency the pragmatic leader has looked for alternative ways to export the natural gas. One of the priority directions is the Western one – via the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, then to Georgia and Turkey through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline.
The EU and the USA are interested in this project implementation. The West is interested in the creation of the system of gas import from Central Asia and Azerbaijan, which would be alternative to the Russian one. The elaborated pipeline project “Nabucco” meets those interests. But the project may be unprofitable if Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan do not take part in it.
However, the project implementation requires, first and foremost, signing of the agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on determination of passing of a middle line dividing the Caspian Sea up into the national sectors. Now the two countries have improved their relations. In particular, after the mutual visits of the intergovernmental committees, the parties managed to come to terms about paying off Azerbaijan’s gas debt to Turkmenistan. Later on, Turkmenistan returned its ambassador to Baku.
The Western countries support Turkmenistan’s joining the Nabukko project. During the recent visit of EU commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner there was achieved the agreement on the Turkmen gas export for up to 10 billion cubic meters a year.
But the question of the Caspian Sea status is left open. Turkmenistan can come to an agreement with Azerbaijan, but Iran is unlikely to make a compromise.
Here there is a format according to which the agreement may not be reached with Iran. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan may come to terms with each other, while the 1921 and 1940 agreements can be used in improving the relations with Iran.
The sector division between the four republics existed as early as in the Soviet period. In 1970, the Caspian Sea was divided up into the national sectors to perfect its economic use. Even now Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have used the sea hydrocarbon deposits in accordance with that division.
It is possible that this experience will be used to settle the arguments between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. If that is so, the problem of the Caspian Sea status, which prevents the international pipeline project “Nabukko” from being implemented, can be solved.
May 5, 2008
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