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RUSSIA - EU RELATIONS
FYODOR LUKYANOV,
Editor-in-Chief of the “Russia in Global Affairs” journal
THE RUSSIA-FRANCE-GERMANY CONFIGURATION IS CEREMONIAL RATHER THAN MEANINGFUL
The Russian government’s refusal to invite the Presidents of Poland and Lithuania to celebrate a 750-year anniversary of Kaliningrad can be interpreted as Russia’s desire to show the new Europe that it has more important and influential friends in the EU. The leaders of Germany and France Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac were invited to the celebrations of Kaliningrad's 750th anniversary.
It is an important signal for Poland that takes the interaction between Russia and Germany without its participation very seriously. It seems the great powers ignore Warsaw.
However, the Russia-France-Germany configuration that has been formed as a response to the invasion of the USA to Iraq is ceremonial rather than meaningful. Russia is willing to be in touch with the leading European countries. It is of importance and prestige for Russia.
As a member of the informal “group of three”, Russia has obtained next to nothing. When it comes to the practical cooperation (first of all in the field of economy) any concrete results of the high-level negotiations are not seen. The reason for that is the fact that the policy within the EU is determined by Brussels where the central supranational EU bodies are located rather than by the leaders of the EU countries. It means that the expected replacing of the governing coalition in Germany with the opposition CDU/CSU alliance will not abrade Germany’s relationship with Russia.
Of course, for Russian President Vladimir Putin it is easy to communicate with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder with whom he is on familiar terms. But Germany’s policy in the Russian direction is determined by some other factors. The economic interest is one of the most important factors. It is German largest corporations (Ruhrgaz, E.ON, Siemens) whose interests are not directly connected with the countries’ leaders. They create the long-term strategy, and its transformation is not determined by the change of authorities.
After Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder retires, Russia’s position will not be such strong as it is now. Schroeder represented the German big business whose direct interests were in Russia. The potential future Chancellor Angela Merkel, the leader of the CDU/CSU alliance, will have to do almost her utmost to improve the relationships with the USA. Besides, it is known that Merkel’s union criticizes Schroeder’s policy in respect of Russian President Vladimir Putin. So, a new Chancellor’s coming to power will put an end to the shirt-sleeve familiarity between Russian and German leaders.
The same can occur in France where a President of another kind can come to power. For example, Minister of the Interior Nicolas Sarkozy. For him cooperation with Russia will unlikely be the priority, except for the energetic cooperation.
As regards the relationship with Lithuania it is necessary to realize that this issue is not the core of the bilateral relationships between Moscow and Vilnius. It is the problem of the relationships between Russia and the European Commission. The Russian strategy is wrong since at the very beginning of the negotiations Russia tried to put pressure upon Lithuania that had delegated the right to solve the Kaliningrad issue to Brussels.
Nothing depends on Lithuania. Its influence upon Brussels is not such strong as Poland’s one. Of course, the possibilities of France or Germany are much greater than those of Poland. But Poland is almost equal to Spain in terms of their possibilities. Therefore, it can bring influence upon Brussels. While solving the transit problems Russia should take it into account.
At all events, the decisions will be made by the supranational bodies in Brussels and the number of the issues decided at this level will be increasing.
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