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RUSSIA MOBILIZES ITS RESOURCES TO STRENGTHEN THE LEADER POSITIONS IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE
SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV,
Expert of the Eurasia Heritage Foundation, Moscow
The meeting of the Supreme State Council of Belarus-Russia Union, which was recently held in Moscow, and the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and EAEC (Eurasian Economic Community) summits are interconnected events. They should be viewed not only in the context of Russia’s policy in the former Soviet Union, but also in the context of the changed geopolitical situation.
Does a new broom sweep clean?
The new Administration came to power in the U.S.A., which said that they were going to revise the foreign policy of George W. Bush’s team. In particular, the foreign-policy priorities will be changed – Afghanistan’s problem will be of paramount importance and the new U.S. authorities will send new forces to solve it. The project of installation of the U.S. missile defense system in Europe may be revised and eastward enlargement of NATO may be suspended. At the same time, new U.S. President Barack Obama suggested that the U.S.A. and Russia cut the American and Russian nuclear arsenals drastically.
Those issues are extremely painful for Moscow; it has already showed a deep interest in them. At the same time, the experience, which the Russian diplomats have gained in dealing with their American colleagues since the Perestroika period, learned the former to create no illusions about Washington’s readiness to make compromises. The new U.S. Administration’s conciliatory gestures towards Russia do not mean a radical change of the U.S. intention to keep its global leadership.
So, it seems that Russia, while agreeing to carry on the dialogue with the new U.S. authorities, is preparing to long and severe haggle. That’s why Barack Obama’s recent statements that the new American strategy will focus on the operation in Afghanistan have caused the Kremlin great concern.
Afghanistan is much closer to the zone of Russia’s vital interests than Iraq is. The “crusade”, which George W. Bush declared against terrorism in 2001, led not only to the defeat of the Taliban movement (which proved to be far from being final), but also to strengthening of the U.S. role in Central Asia, which occurred with Russia’s initial consent.
As a result, NATO operation in Afghanistan has taken longer than expected with the Americans and their allies’ having settled down in Central Asia. It is unclear whether the implementation of Barack Obama’s new strategy will extend the sphere of American military and economic influence in oil and gas-bearing Central Asia. This could destroy the alliances and regional organizations, which are headed by Russia, as well as prevent Russia from being the major distributor of the Central Asian energy resources to Europe.
Incidentally, the Kremlin should think that Teheran and Washington may be reconciled with each other. The new U.S. President has already said that he is ready to directly negotiate with the Islamic Republic. This can become a new challenge for the Russian diplomats: the sanctions against the state, which is the world’s second richest in gas, can be lifted; as a result the Nabucco project can be translated into reality. Therefore, Moscow represented by Vice-Premier Sergei Ivanov offered the U.S.A. mediation in improving the relations with Iran. It is not known whether the countries will need it.
Moscow pursues a preemptive tactic
The Democrats’ coming to power in the U.S.A. is highly conducive to unexpected and far-reaching consequences for Russia’s foreign-policy interests. Moscow decided to pursue a preemptive tactic giving much money to Kyrgyzstan, actually in exchange for the closure of the American base in its territory. The base in Manas International Airport is an important transshipment point in the way of delivering goods for the NATO contingent in Afghanistan. This way Russia showed that the U.S.A. should not ignore it during planning the U.S. new steps in Afghanistan. On the other hand, one can concede that Russia’s moves were caused by its wish to oust its old rival from the traditional “sphere of influence”.
At the same time, the world economic crisis is one of the most important factors determining Russia’s actions on the international arena. The hard economic situation in Russia did not make the Kremlin give up the previous projects. On the contrary, it looks like Moscow decided to render more assistance to its partners and allies, firstly to prevent Russia’s western rivals from winning them over to their side and secondly to increase the potential of the existing integration organizations, which have prospects in the Russian authorities’ opinion, and make them more efficient.
Russia supported only those CIS member states that belong to the most important organizations and alliances and follow the policy similar to that of Russia in many issues. The CIS has a group of countries that the Kremlin regards as its loyal partners. Those are member states of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and the EAEC (Eurasian Economic Community): Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.
In exchange for the preferential credits and new assistance those countries received, the Kremlin has obtained the formation of the Collective Quick Reaction Forces that, according to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, will be “better than the North-Atlantic Alliance forces in terms of their battle potential” (the corps may be 15 000 strong). Simultaneously, the EAEC summit decided to create the anti-crisis joint fund of $10 billion. This should show Russia’s allies that the country is ready to pour money into them again. Apart from that Minsk agreed that the joint anti-aircraft defense should be constructed and the construction may cost $20 billion.
Challenges for Russia
Russia’s following such a policy may be complicated in the future. It is unclear if the world economic crisis has reached its peak – it is possible that Russia will need the funds, which it has given to its allies, much more than those allies will. Russia’s partners have pursued the multivector policy receiving assistance from both Russia and the West. During the crisis they can take advantage of Moscow’s rivaling Washington and Brussels. We can doubt that they will keep their previous promises. At last the financial collapse can lead to the change of regimes in some of those countries. If new policy-makers come to power, they can revise the former agreements on close cooperation with Russia.
At the same time the Americans’ leaving Kyrgyzstan would not mean that they decide against looking for new routes to supply the coalition forces in Afghanistan with the necessary things or against intensifying their diplomatic activities in Central Asia. Tajikistan will allow the NATO fighter jets to use its air space so that they could deliver non-military goods to Afghanistan. The U.S.A. is also going to sign the agreement with Uzbekistan on assistance in delivering goods to the American troops in Afghanistan. The Uzbek air base “Karshi-Khanabad” can pass to the Americans. Apart from that, on 5 February President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov met Robert Simmons, special representative of NATO state secretary on the Central Asian and Caucasus countries. According to the mass media, they discussed the “humanitarian” problems, research and education.
This way, the world economic crisis and the Democrats’ coming to power in the U.S.A. offer new opportunities as well as new challenges for the Russian diplomats. But it is clear that “Big game” in the former Soviet Union goes on.
February 19, 2009
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