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IS VLADIMIR VORONIN’S ERA COMING TO AN END?
SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV,
Expert of the Eurasia Heritage Foundation, Moscow
Preliminary data of the Moldovan Central Election Committee show that the opposition parties won more parliamentary seats than the Communists did. After 98.3% of the ballots had been processed, it became known that the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova got 45.07% of the vote, the Liberal Democratic Party – 16.39%, the Liberal Party – 14.36%, the Democratic Party – 12.61% and “Our Moldova” alliance – 7.37%.
In the new Parliament the Communist Party will get 48 mandates, the Liberal Democratic Party – 17 mandates, the Liberal Party – 15 mandates, the Democratic Party – 13 mandates, and “Our Moldova” alliance – 8 mandates. Apparently, the Communist Party faction will be the most numerous (48 mandates), but, all in all, the anti-communist forces will have the majority of votes (53 mandates).
With 48 mandates in the 101-seat Parliament, the Communist Party will depend on the position of the other political forces, elected to the Parliament.
Meanwhile, four opposition parties in the new Parliament decided to build the ruling coalition. Vlad Filat, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, said that “the steadfast agreement is reached, and the details will be discussed after the official election returns are announced”. However the potential alliance of Vladimir Voronin’s opponents will be neither efficient nor strong.
The opposition parties have enough votes (53, while 52 votes are required) to form the government and pass laws, but they cannot elect the President without the Communists’ consent (61 votes are required). The government composition is confirmed by the President, so the opposition cannot form even the new Cabinet.
The observers believe that the balance of forces in the Parliament will in many respects hinge on the position of the Democratic Party and Marian Lupu, the party leader and former Speaker, who stopped his membership of the Communist Party shortly before the parliamentary elections. If the Democratic Party members join the Communists, the alliance will have enough votes to elect the President. However it is unclear whether Vladimir Voronin, the head of the Communist Party, agrees to such a deal. The Democratic Party will certainly make it a condition for the deal that its leader should be elected as the Moldovan President.
If Marian Lupu is confirmed as Moldova’s President, Vladimir Voronin cannot act as the informal leader under the technical head of state. On the other hand, Marian Lupu can guarantee that Vladimir Voronin and his family will not be prosecuted. Apart from that, a representative of the Communist Party can take up the position of the Prime Minister or the Speaker, while the Democratic Party can share the cabinet posts with the Communists.
Marian Lupu himself said that he would not enter into alliance with the Communists even if the presidential post was offered to him. But Marian Lupu believes that a broad coalition – with the participation of the Communist Party and three liberal parties – may be formed. This is significant that, according to unconfirmed data, the Kremlin officials would welcome Marian Lupu’s becoming Moldova’s President. The former Speaker, who supports the multivector foreign policy of Moldova, thinks that it is important to develop the relations with Russia.
Theoretically, “Our Moldova” alliance could join the Democratic Party – the Communist Party tandem. Serafim Urecheanu, the leader of “Our Moldova” alliance, said that his party might cooperate with the Communists provided “Vladimir Voronin is not the leader of the Communist Party any more and the Communists agree with 15 principles of “Our Moldova” alliance, the first one is the European integration”. In this case, Marian Lupu could become the President, Zinaida Grecianii (or another member of the Communist Party) – the Prime Minister and, Serafim Urecheanu – the Speaker.
I believe that if Vladimir Voronin resigned as the Communist Party leader, “Our Moldova” alliance and the Democratic Party could cooperate with the Communists. But the incumbent President is unlikely to step down, which makes this “triumvirate” impossible.
If the Democratic Party, the Communist Party (and “Our Moldova” alliance) bloc is formed, the right-wing parties (the Liberal Democratic Party and the Liberal Party) cannot come out against the bloc. In any case, the right-wing parties, which stand up for quick rapprochement with the EU and NATO to the detriment of the relations with Russia, will not play the main role in the Parliament. This way, after the elections Moldova’s foreign strategy will remain unchanged in many respects: Chisinau will maneuver between Moscow and the West. One can predict that Moldova can become as Western-oriented as possible.
At the same time, another scenario is possible. The Communist Party and the Democratic Party cannot form the alliance. Then another political crisis is inevitable in the country. The elections will be held not until 2010 as, according to the Moldovan laws, the Parliament cannot be dissolved twice for the same year. In this case, Vladimir Voronin will be the Moldovan President till the parliamentary elections in 2010. This would be good for the Communists who will continue to rule the country. True, it is unclear how they will manage to form the Cabinet as they have only 48 mandates, while 53 ones are required.
Meanwhile, following the elections there appeared a question not only about the ruling coalition, but also about the future of Vladimir Voronin’s regime. The coming change of power directly concerns the material interests of the President, his family and team, so those people will do their utmost to keep the assets they received during their holding power.
The prospects of the Communist Party as a political force will likely depend on whether it will be able to change its image and organizational structure properly to meet the altering preferences of the voters. That’s why Vladimir Voronin may step down as the Communist Party leader sooner or later.
August 3, 2009
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