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RUSSIA – TAJIKISTAN RELATIONS
ABDUGHANI MAMADAZIMOV,
Chairman of the Tajik National Association of Political Scientists, Dushanbe
The information about the results of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon’s visit to Russia is extremely scant. This can indicate that there are problems in Russia-Tajikistan relations.
After Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had visited Uzbekistan in January 2009, Tajikistan witnessed surge of negative emotions towards Russia. The Tajiks have realized that the Soviet heritage in Russia-Tajikistan relations is exhausted: from now on the bilateral relations should be based on pragmatism and protection of national interests, which is good for Dushanbe.
This is significant that Emomali Rahmon visited Russia a month after Dmitry Medvedev had paid a visit to Uzbekistan, because the negative emotions somewhat subsided. The Russian authorities suggested that Emomali Rahmon arrive in Russia on a state visit at the end of 2009. Thus, Moscow allows Dushanbe to calm in order to solve the hot issues in a quiet atmosphere.
The informal part of Mr. Rahmon’s visit to Russia is of the greatest interest. The Presidents did the fishing, which could be interpreted in the following way: Moscow gives Dushanbe a fishing rod implying that it should fish by itself. It means that currently instead of relying only upon Russia, Tajikistan should seek extra foreign aid and investments.
It also means that the military-space cooperation will continue to prevail in the relations between Moscow and Dushanbe. Russian high-ranking military officials will go to Tajikistan just as they have done that. By contrast Russian bankers and businessmen go to Tajikistan unwillingly, so the economic cooperation will leave much to be desired. The breakthrough may occur only if “Gazprom” company develops three gas deposits.
Tajikistan has waited for expansion of economic cooperation with Russia and for Russia’s active participation in the hydropower engineering development for 17 years. It was expected that Rogun hydropower plant would be constructed, but this does not happen.
On the one hand, the reason is Tajikistan’s domestic problems, for example, corruption. But Russian businessmen are not active in that country, although the businessmen from other countries, which have no military bases in Tajikistan, are more successful in our country.
I believe that the Chinese business may become a pivotal player in Tajikistan within the next five years. Now the Chinese companies complete the road infrastructure project, later on they will take part in the hydropower projects.
February 27, 2009
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