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WORKING VISIT OF EMOMALI RAHMON TO RUSSIA
ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies Department, Institute of the CIS Countries, Moscow
The visit of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to Russia made on February 24, testifies to the serious problems in Russia-Tajikistan relations as well as in the relations between Tajikistan and its Central Asian neighbors, above all, Uzbekistan.
Those problems haven't arisen right now, they have existed for a couple of years. After Russia had obtained the raising of status of the 201st motorized infantry division, which had become a military base, the space tracker station “Okno” was handed over to Russia towards the repayment of Tajikistan's debt. The agreements on implementation of joint major investment projects were reached, but the Tajik authorities have blocked those initiatives.
First of all, the Russian frontier guards were ousted from the Tajik-Afghan frontier. Of course, the frontier guarding is a sovereign state's prerogative. But judging by the information about volumes of drugs transportation from Afghanistan via Tajikistan, Dushanbe fails to guard its frontiers.
Several years ago unfriendly actions were taken towards the Russian aluminum company “Rusal”, which was accused of violations of the conditions of Rogun hydropower plant construction. In particular, the company was accused of non-fulfillment of the stated parameters of the feasibility study, of the dam construction closer to the lower reaches of the river that it was expected, of seeking to understate the expenses, etc. As a result “Rusal” was removed from the country.
However, according to available data, extra money was extorted from “Rusal” by just about everyone in the Republic – from the Tajik President's relatives to the regional officials. This is a peculiarity of doing business in Tajikistan – there are many non-production-related expenses.
In exchange for Rogun hydropower plant construction, “Rusal” hoped to take part in privatization of Tajik Aluminum Smelter, the country's major assets. But the company's request was turned down and Tajik Aluminum Smelter was declared a national heritage. The aluminum smelter is controlled by the President's relatives and they were likely to decide not to sell it.
After the conflict with “Rusal”, “RAO EES” company came to Tajikistan and now “Inter RAO”, the company's successor on international projects, completes the construction of Sangtuda hydropower plant. This project is smaller-scale than Rogun hydropower plant construction, but the project will also make it possible to solve many Tajikistan's energy problems.
In spite of this, Tajikistan sees surge of emotions towards Russia. The Tajik mass media launched the campaign accusing the Russians of “fascism” and of making Tajik migrants leave Russia. There appeared collages portraying Russian Premier Vladimir Putin near skinheads.
There are no independent mass media in Tajikistan. They are controlled by the government. It is clear that the campaign was started by order of the Presidential Executive Office.
During Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Uzbekistan, he was sharply criticized by Tajiks for his statement that Russia, while implementing region-wide projects in Central Asia, will take into consideration all the sides' opinions.
The project of Rogun hydropower plant greatly annoys Uzbekistan. Russia's full agreement to take part in the project would put an end to all political and economic relations with Tashkent.
More than that, Uzbekistan regards the Rogun project as a threat to its national security. So Uzbekistan could use force locally to prevent the hydropower plant from being constructed without taking Tashkent's opinion into consideration.
All Tajikistan's unfriendly actions towards Russia have two original causes. Firstly, in spite of Tajikistan's weak involvement in the world economy, the country faces more and more serious economic crisis. The aluminum and cotton prices have dropped by one third in the world market, which is highly conducive to the decline in earnings.
The Russian and Kazakh construction industries have a difficult time, so the Tajik labor migrants may come home. In 2008, according to the official data, their contribution to the country's budget was 50% of the GDP earnings.
The migrants' coming home and the decline in earnings can lead to social protests. In order to avoid this, the Tajik authorities use a well-tried method – cultivation of an enemy's image, first and foremost, this is Uzbekistan. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have looked upon each other as enemies for a long time. The Uzbek delegation recently visited Tajikistan, but the talks results are not known.
Now Tajikistan looks upon Russia as its enemy and regards it as its unreliable partner who promises much but does nothing. The Tajik authorities feel hurt against a background of the successful visit of Kyrgyz President, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, to Moscow after which Bishkek received considerable financial aid.
So two factors prevailed in Emomali Rahmon's working visit to Russia. The first factor is Tajik President needs financial assistance and he asked for it putting pressure on Moscow.
The second one is geopolitics. Lately the Western officials have often visited Tajikistan, met the President, the military, security, law-enforcement and economic ministers. The U.S. has spent a lot of money to form pro-American attitudes among the Tajik elite, as a result, the President's entourage do not have pro-Russian figures.
It's ironic that Russia is an important partner for Tajikistan, receives migrants, invests its money into the country, but the Tajik political elite are set against Moscow. This results from the U.S. 5-6-year investing into Tajikistan's managerial and intellectual elites (journalists, NGOs).
Russia made a mistake thinking that its economic influence would entail political influence. The Tajik elite are drifting from Russia. The U.S. gives the grants to certain persons to form the pro-American lobby in Tajikistan, which is efficient. The society lives as usual, which is of no importance to the authorities unless, in their opinion, the protests in the country are too heavy. Some experts believe that Tajikistan is drifting to Iran or China, but they are wrong. Tajikistan has recently become the U.S.A.-oriented country. When Russia is convinced of that and the Tajikistan's ruling elite come to realize that Moscow can stop considering Tajikistan to be its only partner, the Tajik elite's foreign orientation may change.
February 26, 2009
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