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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN UKRAINE
YURY YAKIMENKO,
Director of political and legal programs of Ukrainian Razumkov Center for economic and political studies, Kyiv
According to the preliminary results of the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine, the gap between the winner Viktor Yanukovych and the loser Yuliya Tymoshenko is narrow (3%). No presidential candidate gets over 50% of the vote. Viktor Yanukovych failed to get the result, which the Party of Regions pretended to. Now Yuliya Tymoshenko can contest this outcome in the court.
But two important factors can prevent such a scenario from taking place. Firstly, serious proofs are needed for the court, and it is not known if Yuliya Tymoshenko’s team has them.
The second factor is the observers’ international missions. They have revealed some violations, but do not think they influence the election returns. On the whole, they recognize the elections.
That means Viktor Yanukovych also can counteract the election results contesting process. The election results would be disputed legally. Unlike the year 2004, the efforts to organize the second “Orange Revolution” and mass protests, would not play an important role, they would be just a factor of political and psychological pressure on the courts.
The narrow gap shows that it will be difficult for Viktor Yanukovych to seize power and that the two presidential candidates should negotiate with each other.
The scenario of Yuliya Tymoshenko Cabinet resignation is possible, but the situation is not simple. The government non-confidence resolution could be adopted. Yuliya Tymoshenko would become the acting Premier. A new coalition would have to be built. But would “Our Ukraine” faction agree to form an alliance with the Party of Regions? Some of “Our Ukraine” members voted for changing the Presidential Elections Law on the eve of the second round of the presidential election, but there is no telling if they would form the coalition with the Party of Regions.
Are early parliamentary elections possible in Ukraine? The fact that Yuliya Tymoshenko took over 45% of the vote in the presidential elections means that she has a good chance of winning the parliamentary elections. The approval rating of the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc will not have become lower by the early elections. So, it is difficult to say who needs the early elections more. But even if to admit that the new coalition is built in the Verkhovna Rada after the presidential elections and the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc becomes the opposition in the Parliament, the constitutional changes will be impossible, because the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc has 150 seats (this is one third of the Parliament). That’s why the scenario of tough stripping Yuliya Tymoshenko of power can be difficult and, what counts most, painful for Viktor Yanukovych.
February 8, 2010
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