VITALY BALA

Ukraine's issue in the context of Russia-EU relations is not of current importance. As regards the foreign-policy issues, the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence is of the greatest significance to Moscow now.

VITALY BALA

Leader of the opposition Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko continue to be the major presidential candidates. In the first round Viktor Yanukovych can rank first. But in the second round he will lose the election to Yuliya Tymoshenko.

The Ukrainian presidential election campaign began on October 19 – just in time for Halloween. And in keeping with the haunting holiday spirit, all the contenders for the nation’s top job are looking spookier than ever. The candidates are not out to frighten voters, though. Instead, they want to scare each other with dirty tricks and outrageous PR, which will surely keep apace until the New Year, when voting is scheduled.

Against the background of social disappointments and political failures that have been taking place in Ukraine during Viktor Yushchenko’s presidency, the freedom of speech is considered to be one of the main achievements of the Orange Revolution. President Yushchenko likes to mention that in his speeches telling Ukrainians about the diffusion of democratic values in the country under his rule.

Almost as soon as Ukraine gained its independence nearly a generation ago, investors and analysts began speaking of the country’s great potential – as the breadbasket of Europe, as a consumer population of 50 million, as a beacon of democracy on the border with Russia, etc. These hopes have still not died, but they are slowly being smothered by a seemingly never ending cycle of disappointments.

Arseny Yatsenyuk has been on Ukraine’s political stage for some time, as the nation’s top banker, top parliamentarian and more than one kind of Cabinet minister. Now, he is running for president, as an alternative to the dynamic trio of President Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and three-time loser Viktor Yanukovych.

Ukrainian politics have been a three-horse race ever since the country’s ethereal Orange Revolution. Some have described this race as democracy – wild and exciting, if not fair or progressive. But with internal divisions, relations with Russia and economic despair worse than ever, most Ukrainians would just like to harness one of these snorting beasts to some vehicle of palpable development, to make him do something useful.

Under Ukraine’s last president, Leonid Kuchma, crime and punishment were pretty straight forward affairs. If you were a poor slob caught near the scene of a crime, you would be quickly whisked off to a remand center and possibly tortured along the way. Whether you were guilty or not, you stayed in that remand center with the faint hope of being pardoned or just let out.

In 2004, as the country readied itself to elect a new president, one who would replace the thoroughly disgraced Leonid Kuchma, there was a feeling that most ordinary and well-placed Ukrainians were gradually falling into line behind the then young and reform-minded hopeful, Viktor Yushchenko.

It sometimes seems difficult to believe, but it’s been almost five years since Ukraine underwent its Orange Revolution – an event that for many put the country on the world map. For others, however, the heady days of late 2004 were a big show that has ended in even bigger disappointments.

He first rose to national political prominence in 2002, when he was appointed Ukrainian prime minister under President Leonid Kuchma. Analysts immediately foresaw a shift in power toward the country’s so-called Donetsk clan, which Yanukovych represented.

We all know about the rise and fall of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. He was respected as the head of the National Bank, then trusted during his short stint as prime minister, and finally swept into the presidency during the country's Orange Revolution. It seemed like a fairy-tale political career - and indeed it was.