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THE RUSSIAN – GEORGIAN RELATIONS
MIKHAIL ALEKSANDROV,
Head of the Caucasus studies department, the Institute of CIS countries, Moscow
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is heading to Russia for negotiations practically with one purpose – to settle the issue of Georgia’s territorial integrity.
Why is Saakashvili coming to Russia now? It might have a number of explanations. Firstly, the talks are taking place right in the run-up to the G8 summit in St.-Petersburg. Saakashvili assumes he can take advantage of that and put pressure on the Russian President.
Secondly, Putin is not interested in enlarging conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia right before the G8 summit. That was the reason he agreed to that visit.
Before, any proposals concerning straight talks, were normally neglected. And the Russian party did have strong arguments in favor of such conduct. In 2004 – in course of the two Presidents’ meeting – Saakashvili had promised Putin a lot. That was because Russia abstained from the military intervention to the Adzharia conflict, which resulted in overthrowing Aslan Abashidze, head of Adzharia.
However, Saakashvili did not take that into consideration and started an anti-Russian campaign, demanded withdrawal of the peacekeepers and put South Ossetia under even more pressure. Therefore, the meeting of the two Presidents in this case made no sense.
But now, ahead of the G8 summit, the parties have acquired agendas concerning each other. However, I personally don’t expect much crucial to happen. Saakashvili is very likely to propose an internationalization scheme of the conflict settlement, which Putin is unlikely to agree to. What’s more important is to try and prevent disorder in the conflict zones before the summit actually starts. After everything “returns to normal”, expecting the Georgian authorities to change their stance seems pointless.
That is why it is important for the Russian authorities to tune themselves to a long-term process of the conflict settlement with Georgia, which may extend for over a decade.
Regarding Georgia, Russia has two major concerns – Georgia’s non-accession to NATO and ban on deployment of the foreign military forces on Georgian territory. So, in response to any of Saakashvili’s claims Russia will put forward those demands Georgia will be likely to decline. So there are no major breakthroughs to be expected at this meeting.
It might tell negatively on Saakashvili’s rating which is already alarming. But Saakashvili is not too preoccupied with it at the moment. The Georgian President has built nearly a dictatorship and to get him out of this position through elections is practically impossible. None of the Georgian Presidents in the post-Soviet era legitimately left their post, i.e. by means of losing at the elections.
June 13, 2006
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