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THE REFERENDUM IN SOUTH OSSETIA
MIKHAIL ALEKSANDROV,
Head of the Caucasus studies department, the Institute of CIS countries, Moscow
President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity has signed the decree on holding the territory’s independence referendum on November 12, 2006.
There are good reasons for that. For the last two years the West has become more active in the Caucasus. The main task of the Western countries is more intense integration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with Georgia.
But the referendum must show the opposite. The main objective of the referendum is to make it clear that the South Ossetians want to be independent from Georgia. The similar referendum was conducted back in 1992. Then the overwhelming majority of voters supported the independence of South Ossetia. Though, the referendum was not legitimate enough.
The forthcoming referendum should settle the issue. It will be held with observance of the main democratic principles. South Ossetia has scored big successes on its way of democratic development. For instance, the power in the republic changed democratically several times, the opposition also won the elections.
The local authorities are going to hold an extremely transparent referendum. Notably, the international observers will be invited. Yet, they may refuse to come.
In the end, the referendum results will remove the groundless accusations that the authorities of the unrecognized republics are not legitimate and their policies are not backed up by the people. Besides, the referendum will strengthen the hand of South Ossetian authorities in negotiations with Tbilisi.
But Georgia will disagree with the referendum results. And it will try to prevent the referendum from being held. Certain provocations, sporadic shots, hostage-takings of South Ossetia’s citizens are possible. However, Georgia will not seek a solution by force.
The Western countries will not agree with the referendum results either. The West is interested in weakening Russia’s positions in the Caucasus, and therefore, in undermining the positions of Russia’s allies including South Ossetia.
In this situation Russia should recognize the referendum results, and the Parliament should adopt a resolution on South Ossetia’s joining Russia.
September 12, 2006
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