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THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
TEMUR YAKOBASHVILI,
Vice President of Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Tbilisi, Georgia
I believe that withdrawal of Georgia’s signature from the agreement on Russia’s WTO accession is caused by the Russian government’s different economic sanctions imposed on Georgia.
It is not only about banning some of the Georgian goods (wine, mineral water “Borjomi”). The closing of the check-point “Verkhny Lars” also has negative economic consequences. This decision is advantageous for informal suppliers conveying cargos through the check-points in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The WTO is to make the trade relations easier. However, when the trade between Georgia and Russia becomes more difficult due to the political reasons, there is nothing else left for Georgia to do but to use the tools available including withdrawal from the agreement on Russia’s WTO accession.
Of course, this situation has worsened the already bad relations between the two countries. That’s why Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was going to come to the CIS informal summit (July 21-22) in Moscow in order to look at the problems with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
However, in the run-up to the summit it was stated that the Russian President has no time for meeting with Mikheil Saakashvili. Therefore, Saakashvili’s visit to Russia became pointless and was cancelled.
All of that indicates that the Russian-Georgian relations have deteriorated to the highest degree. The both parties take unfriendly steps towards each other. In my opinion, all of the hostile actions have already been taken save for the armed confrontation. However, it is unlikely to happen.
The worsening of the relations leads to the fact that the problems will have to be solved at the multilateral rather than at the bilateral level as it used to happen before. The countries will have to use international intermediaries to settle the conflicts.
I think that the other states, as well as the international organizations, may take part in this process. The USA is likely to be involved as little as possible, while the EU may become the most active participant.
The EU is interested in Russia’s being in good terms with its neighbors. Before, Russia handled its role by itself, maintaining stable relations with the former Soviet republics.
But now Russia not only fails to do that, but undertakes actions provoking its neighbors to reactions that might have negative consequences to Russia itself. As a result, unfortunately, Russia loses its opportunity to dominate in the Caucasus. Instead of becoming attractive for its neighbors, Russia tries to return its lost positions by means of the aggressive actions.
Russia’s policy is getting unproductive. For this reason, Georgia has to use the intermediaries to solve various problems.
The USA and the EU are mainly interested in the Caucasian region’s avoiding a military conflict. A new armed confrontation in the Caucasus will become a disaster both for Russia and Georgia. There will be no winners, and a chaos will take over that neither Russia, nor Georgia, nor the EU, nor the USA want to be part of.
July 21, 2006
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