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THE BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN OIL PIPELINE WITH REGARD TO THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
GHIA NODIA,
Political Scientist, Director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi, Georgia
I believe that Georgia is not very enthusiastic about putting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into operation. On the whole, the Georgians’ attitude to this event is quite passive.
This project is of importance to Georgia in terms of politics rather than economy. $64 million that can be made out of the oil pipeline is not significant for the country’s economy.
What’s more important is the fact that this project has drawn the U.S particular attention to Georgia and helped to the country in acquiring the status of a transit state. This makes possible to attract considerable investments.
This is the direction the new government is working on now, stressing the transit projects, and above all, the development of the transport infrastructure. In particular, the authorities are extremely interested in the road network enlargement.
However, now the first and foremost transit project planned is the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline that would link Central Asia and the European Union avoiding Russia.
The main objective of all transit projects is stimulating the flow of the foreign investments to the Georgian economy. And this sphere has seen positive changes. But I would not speak about significant and tangible successes. The hope for receiving sufficient foreign investments still remains a hope.
Putting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into operation is unlikely to aggravate relations between Georgia and Russia. The degree of competition on this issue reached its highest on the moment of the project envisagement, that is under Eduard Shevardnadze. Therefore, in a way, putting the oil pipeline into operation cannot be considered as solely the current President’s accomplishment.
All in all, Russia has to take it for granted. What is more, in terms of economy, the oil pipeline poorly compensates the losses that the Georgian economy may suffer due to the ban on the number of goods exported from Georgia to Russia.
Those losses will be compensated in case of the successful realization of the projects on building the two gas pipelines. To a smaller extent this issue may be handled through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline. After its putting into operation Georgia’s dependence on the Russian gas will lessen but it will still remain.
The Trans-Сaspian gas pipeline (if it is to be actually built) will be much more efficient. The implementation of the project will visibly change the relations between Russia and Georgia. The direct consequence of the gas pipeline’s putting into operation would be Georgia’s tangible lowering of the energy dependence on Russia.
July 12, 2006
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