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POLITICAL SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
NUR OMAROV,
Political scientist, Bishkek
The current political scandal[1] in Kyrgyzstan can be explained in two ways.
Firstly, it should be viewed as a kind favor rendered by the Kyrgyz special services to Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev on the threshold of the opposition’s Kurultai (assembly) scheduled for September 17, 2006.
Second consideration is that President Bakiyev doesn’t have a reliable team, and this is his greatest problem. Near the President there is a couple of factions struggling for power and influence in the country. And the recent political scandal was caused by their billiards-like tricks – they hit a ball, which hit by ricochet the others. They might have sought to weaken both Bakiyev and the opposition. Though, the main outcome of the absurd action towards Omurbek Tekebayev was that the authorities involuntarily brought the name of one of the Kyrgyz opposition leaders into repute.
The potential organizers of this action hoped either to win the President’s favor through their efforts to neutralize the opposition, or, if the President starts to lose popularity, to defect from his team and join the opposition, thus benefiting from that.
Now the political situation is being destabilized. The Parliament’s meeting is scheduled for September 14, 2006. It is being planned to pass a resolution concerning a number of drastic developments: resignation of the Bakiyev – Kulov tandem, removal of all Bakiyev’s relatives from the government agencies, formation of the government of national confidence, revision of various contracts that have been concluded under the new authorities (particularly, those concerning the mines), etc.
The political scenario in Kyrgyzstan above all depends on President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s behavior. In principle, it’s better for the President to accommodate rational and fair requests of the Parliament. In particular, the President has been criticized for the procrastination of the constitutional reform. If in this point he works with the opposition constructively and tries to carry out the dialogue rather than to block the situation through the use of force, Kyrgyzstan will find a way out of the crisis in a smooth matter.
Should the authorities choose to use strong-arm tactics, the situation will get beyond control and get unpredictable. If the authorities show their unwillingness to cooperate with the opposition, the rivals will demand the President’s resignation.
Since nobody wants serious shocks in Kyrgyzstan, the government and the opposition have to compromise. However, the action towards Tekebayev has indicated that the authorities are not ready for that (they are trying to oppress the opposition), which makes it impossible for the opposition to negotiate with the authorities.
The main problem is that strictly speaking political life of Kyrgyzstan falls short from its classical rational ideals. There is a conflict of interests of different persons, factions and behind-the-scenes agreements. All of that generates rather unpredictable combinations.
September 14, 2006
[1]On September 13, 2006 Kyrgyzstan's President has accepted the resignations of his top two security officials in the wake of a “drug-smuggling” scandal involving a prominent member of the opposition that erupted last week.
Busurmankul Tabaldiyev, the head of the National Security Service, tendered his resignation after his agency was accused of playing a role in an incident that saw opposition leader Omurbek Tekebeyev detained with a batch of heroin in Poland. Tabaldiyev's first deputy, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's brother Zhanysh, was fired on the same day.
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