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KYRGYZSTAN: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN KURMANBEK BAKIYEV AND THE OPPOSITION
NUR OMAROV,
Political scientist, Bishkek
The opposition rally in Bishkek, which began on November 2, is a direct consequence of the protracted powers redistribution process that dates back to the Tulip Revolution of March 24, 2005. Under the existing Constitution the majority of powers belong to the President. The already existing conflict between the Parliament and President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was exacerbated by the politicians from Kyrgyzstan’s south who, having come to power, initiated redistribution of the majority of the posts breaking the balance of forces. So, what we are witnessing now is an attempt to regain status quo between the Parliament and the President as well as among the regional elites.
The rally can result in different scenarios. The point is that one cannot exclude provocations from the authorities. By the highest standards, the agreements may be achieved on some secondary issues, but the main opposition demand, resignation of the “Bakiyev-Kulov” tandem and formation of the government of national confidence is hard to fulfill, since the coalition is not going to resign. The government alliance (at least, President Bakiyev), if necessary, can use force in order to remain in power and later on to use the present crisis against the opposition.
Some 12-13 thousand people gathered in the Bishkek’s central square in the evening of November 2, but about 3 thousand of those present were the police forces. The real number of the opposition protesters in the square was no more than 8-9 thousand.
As regards the popular support, the public opinion polls show that the most Kyrgyzstanis are against conducting rallies – naturally, this does not mean supporting Bakiyev’s policy – people simply want peace and stability in the country. They are afraid that force might be used to settle the conflict.
The situation in Bishkek is quiet and peaceful; the rally organizers are interested in that. On November 2 no serious steps were expected, since the opposition forces were just gathering.
The opposition has no resources to hold a continuous rally, in fact the opposition’s forces can last only a week. Therefore, they only have the next week to resolve all the questions with the President.
Of course, the population has some fears in the wake of the last year’s events. For all that, the last year’s mass riots are unlikely to repeat this time. The businessmen are self-organizing to protect their property.
Now the most topical issue is the constitutional reform. The parliamentary opposition requires that Kyrgyzstan be reformed into a parliamentary republic. They require more powers for themselves. As to the draft Constitution, Kurmanbek Bakiyev has not submitted his version yet, he promises to make it public on November 6.
I believe that the draft Constitution with the presidential-parliamentary form of government will be adopted. I have come out for this form of government for a long time because above all this would be a compromise decision for the opposing parties. And with this model of distribution of powers the Parliament would be able to control the steps taken by the President who would not be a sole leader.
In my opinion, the Parliament and the President should accept the mixed form of government where the Parliament would receive more powers. This draft should have been adopted a long time ago. The current Kyrgyz authorities are responsible for not carrying out the constitutional reform, reproducing permanent conflict between the Parliament and the President and provocation of the rallies.
As regards the establishment of the parliamentary republic, firstly Kyrgyzstan should go through the preparatory stage (15-20 years) to form a strong party system and civil sector, new political and governing elite and to lay down the foundations of the professional Parliament.
November 3, 2006
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