|
PUTIN TO ASSIST IN THE INFORMAL EU SUMMIT
YURY BORKO,
Principal researcher at the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Formerly expecting every EU summit with participation of Russia the mass media used to make predictions that the Russian leader would be severely criticized by the West for retreat from democracy and along with that would be pressed into signing the European Energy Charter with the transit protocol unchanged.
However, the EU summit has never before developed according to this scenario. For nobody cherishes illusions that Russia can become a European-type democracy in a two-year period. (This is hardly achievable even in a twenty-year period.) And as the EU bureaucrats perfectly understand this they have removed the state-of-democracy-in-Russia issue from the agenda of the summit. But this theme dominates sessions of the European Human Rights and Democracy Committee, and these are not abstract speculations – the Committee addresses cases from practice and debate on concrete applicable solutions.
As for the current summit in Finland, I don’t think it will go off course. As usually, there will be no harsh criticism of democratic practices in Russia, though the murder of the investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya may provoke tough wording. But we all should bear in mind that such events are most often provocations – and obviously some forces will try to use this situation to weaken influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin on international politics.
But participants of this summit will focus mainly on security of energy supply issues. But there is little chance that Russia and its European partners will reach any agreement in principle. For signing the transit protocol would mean liberalization of the Russian gas supply market and broader access to the Russian gas transportation system – changes Moscow is reluctant to invite. The Russian authorities want to maintain the present status quo of Gasprom enjoying monopoly on the gas supply market.
So I think Russia and EU will reach a compromise through acknowledging the long-term agreements between Gasprom and Italian, German companies and companies of other European countries. Bilateral relations will stay the main mechanism for coordinating energy policies. The EU member-states don’t have common energy policy, and thus tackling energy issues at European level is rather difficult.
Summing up I would say that the summit in Finland will not change the present status quo. And the parties will continue developing cooperation, for the European gas and oil companies hold interest in their Russian partner hoping to provide scheduled energy supplies.
October 20, 2006
|
