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UKRAINE: BETWEEN THE WEST AND RUSSIA
VADIM KARASYOV,
Director of the Institute of Global Strategies, Kyiv
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych stick to different foreign policies. The main disagreement is that the presidential team is vigorously geared up for Ukraine’s joining NATO and the EU.
Viktor Yanukovych doesn’t have such clear-cut plans. He wishes to carry out reforms in Ukraine and does not deny the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU. But as a matter of fact, there is much of euroscepticism behind that stance. Yanukovych’s team is not sure that the EU has prospects and believes that Ukraine may become the EU member only in the distant future.
In other words, Yushchenko adheres to the eurointegration policy, while Yanukovych’s policy is “euro-oriented”, which includes intense development of the cooperation with the EU and NATO, but not necessarily joining those organizations.
As regards Yanukovych’s visits to Russia and the USA, he has to pursue the “multi-vector” policy. Taking into account Ukraine’s complicated economic situation, its dependence on the Russian energy resources, Russia’s humanitarian and cultural influence upon the east of Ukraine where popularity of the Party of Regions and Viktor Yanukovych is reducing, the Prime Minister has to keep its balance between Russia and the West.
That’s why I believe that the Yanukovych’s meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov may be followed by that with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Here Yanukovych should show that his premiership guarantees Ukraine’s stability and implies the compromise of the Ukrainian elites.
If to speak about Yanukovych’s visit to the USA, he should come closer to the global elites and make Washington not pin its hopes on Yushchenko alone. Yanukovych is interested in Washington’s emphasis on the President as well as the current status quo that would ensure Yanukovych the premiership. With that end in view Yanukovych will try to present himself as a Ukrainian top politician who is able to follow balanced economic policy in Ukraine.
December 1, 2006
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