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THE FUTURE OF THE CIS IS IN UKRAINE’S HANDS
VADIM KARASYOV,
Director of the Institute of Global Strategies, Kyiv
The future of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is dependent on the relations between its member states. Many things hinge on Moscow’s view of the CIS. At present the Russian elite believe that the CIS evolves from an instrument of “civilized divorce” of the former Soviet republics and from an informal club of the post-Soviet presidencies into an instrument of the post-Soviet space reintegration and of making a new composition within the historical Russia.
The European term “reintegration” has nothing to do with Russia’s project of lands gathering around the great power. Reintegration implies division and transfer of powers, which is not true for the Russian project of re-composition of the former Soviet Union. On the contrary, Moscow’s project implies power concentration in the Kremlin's hands and Russia’s complete dominance. It is not reintegration, but re-imperialization by means of which Russia would like to be a strong actor on the world arena, which would be surrounded by its loyal subordinate allies.
If the CIS re-composition implies Russia’s dominance, then the other CIS member states will have questions – how they will react to this process and whether they can withstand the new trend in Moscow’s approaches to the CIS. Some will continue to follow the “multivector” policy and will balance between Russia, the West and the other actors. Others will not be strong enough to do that, still others can withdraw from the CIS, sever relations with Russia and decide to pursue the one-vector policy like Georgia did (on August 18, 2009 Georgia officially withdrew from the CIS).
Ukraine’s current political situation is extremely complicated. Over the past five years the Ukrainian authorities have regarded the CIS as a burden that bored them. Official Kyiv is seeking the EU and NATO membership.
If Viktor Yushchenko wins the 2010 presidential elections, Ukraine will try to withdraw from the CIS.
If another presidential candidate Yuliya Tymoshenko wins the elections, Kyiv will seek to restore the “multivector” policy, although it would be much more difficult to do that than in the 1990s. The Ukrainian political class would have to maneuver as efficiently as possible or to strengthen the authoritarian tendencies.
If a pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych wins the elections, Moscow will take advantage of the relations with the future Ukrainian authorities as its key ally to re-imperialize the post-Soviet space. It would be extremely difficult, or even impossible, to carry out this project without the participation of Ukraine.
So, to some extent, the future of the post-Soviet space (either the CIS member states unite around Russia, or the CIS collapses) will be determined after the presidential elections in Ukraine. The future of Belarus, Azerbaijan and even of the Central Asian countries, where China is getting more and more influential, will also be determined in the presidential elections in Ukraine as well as in the foreign policy pursued by the future Ukrainian authorities, including those cooperation formats that will be built by the Ukrainian politicians after the elections and by the Russian authorities.
August 20, 2009
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