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PROSPECTS FOR THE BELARUS-RUSSIA RELATIONS
OLEG MANAEV,
Director of Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, Minsk
The recent visit of Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka to Russia (December 15) shows that Moscow continues with its putting pressure on him. The main objective of the Kremlin officials is to strengthen Russia’s control over Belarus and its economy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin while negotiating with his Belarusian colleague has appealed mainly to the economic aspects of the bilateral relations. The crucial thing for Minsk is how strong such a bargaining position of Russia will be in the future negotiations, and what effect on Lukashenka’s regime it will produce.
I believe that Moscow is unlikely to make considerable concessions to Minsk and weaken its pressure on Lukashenka. But it will not be too aggressive up to March, 2008 (when the presidential election is to be held in Russia).
How will Lukashenka react to Russia’s pressure? For the next year and a half the “isolationism” will dominate Belarus’ foreign policy. But this will not last too long, because the full isolation is impossible for the country in the present situation.
Some people think that under Moscow’s pressure Lukashenka will let Russia have some Belarusian enterprises, including “Beltransgaz” (since Lukashenka has no choice – the Western states are not willing to cooperate with him, and the Third World countries, like Venezuela, are located too far).
But I believe that before the presidential election in Russia Lukashenka will not make concessions to the Kremlin. Some Belarusian enterprises can be bought by the Russian companies, but this process will be delayed deliberately.
President Lukashenka has enough resources to stay in power till March, 2008. Analysts say that in that period the Belarusian economy will stand the increase in the gas prices. More than that, the Belarusian people will support Lukashenka. No doubt, that some of his supporters will not back him any more, but those losses will not be catastrophic for the ruling regime.
December 18, 2006
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