OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS SOUTH CAUCASUS

ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN,
Director of Caucasus Media Institute, Yerevan
It is hard for the U.S.A. and other Western countries not to take into account Russia’s interests in the South Caucasus. In case there were any illusions in this respect, the five days war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 has dispelled them. In the aftermath of that war it is absolutely clear that Russia’s interests can and should be taken into account. Otherwise nothing essential can be done in this region.
Russia has recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and what is more important Russia renders military aid to the republics and helps them in building their border fences. Thereby Russia demonstrates its readiness at least to declare its interests in the region.
This led to radical changes in the South Caucasus. For example, though the process of rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey had started before the five days war at some point the armed conflict intensified the relations between the two countries. This process would never be started without approval of Russia and the U.S.A.
As regards Georgia, without doubts the Russia-Georgia relations (or their absence) are in the framework of the Russian-American relations. It is obvious that the Western states are not going to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But rhetoric in political circles, not only due to the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow, shows that they have already accepted the actual situation. It is impossible not to take into account the fact of independence recognition on the part of Russia.
As regards the Armenian-Turkish relations, traditional annual speech of the U.S. President addressed to Armenians of America is very important. In the speech of this year delivered on April 24, President Barack Obama did not use the word “genocide”. Instead he used the Armenian word “Meds Yeghern”, which is the analogue of the Jewish word “Holocaust”.
In other words, Obama made an attempt to please Turks and Armenians. As it always happens none of them were satisfied. Armenian Diaspora was unimpressed, press expressed opinion that Barack Obama did not keep his election campaign promise. These addresses have no legal validity, but still symbolically they are of high importance, especially with regards to the current rapprochement of Armenia and Turkey.
I would like to point out that during his visit to Turkey President Obama touched upon the problem of Armenian-Turkey road map. He has erected this problem to such level of importance as it had never been before.
It means that U.S. authorities move to break a deadlock in this problem. Changes can be expected till the October of this year. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is going to visit a football return match between Turkish and Armenian teams which will take place in Turkey. It’s important to mention that the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey started with Turkish President’s Abdullah Gul visit to a football match, which took place in Yerevan in September, 2008.
July 8, 2009
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