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POLITICAL SITUATION IN TURKMENISTAN
VITALY VOLKOV,
Expert of Deutsche Welle (Germany’s International broadcaster)
Eurasian Home: “Can we expect that President Kurbanghuly Berdymukhammedov will carry out political and economic reforms in Turkmenistan? Will these reforms be comprehensive?”
To answer this question one can use the German word “Jein”, a derivative from “Ja” and “Nein” that is both yes and no. It is evident that the reforms are a trump card in the hands of the new Turkmen authorities; the reformist rhetoric allows them to maneuver between the West and the Turkmen population. And though little has been done, it is enough to give hope to the Turkmen people, at least in Ashgabat.
Kurbanghuly Berdymukhammedov’s initial position is advantageous because absolutely everything was destroyed under Saparmurat Niyazov. I think in several years the question will be raised about genocide against the Turkmen people to which the entire world turned a blind eye. Therefore, the Turkmens are ready to be thankful for the smallest mercies.
Now the authorities can make it possible to freely supply flour and bread to the country, purchase medicines to stop the epidemic, establish order in the rural areas as it was in the Soviet period, and improve the pensioners’ quality of life. In the long term it is next to nothing, but at present this can be called a reform.
Along with that the authorities will not diminish the role of special services, neither will they create transparent market economy or liberalize the electoral and management systems or open information sources for the population.
And there are no indications that Ashgabat is ready to honestly speak about its gas relations and resources.
Eurasian Home: “How firm are Berdymukhammedov’s positions or is he a weak figure dependent on his retinue?”
According to sources in Ashgabat, Berdymukhammedov is gradually strengthening his positions, which is showed by his election as Chairman of Halk Maslahaty. This body virtually made public his plans. The key posts are occupied by his relatives or the people from his retinue.
There is information that Berdymukhammedov managed to gain the upper hand over grey eminence, head of the presidential security Akmurad Rejepov; some of the people faithful to Rejepov lost their ground; all the military, security and law enforcement officials cannot influence the important governmental decisions. And yet, for the time being, Berdymukhammedov is weak. He achieved his successes through winning support of the policy-makers who have their own interests and ambitions, but now they do not feel powerful enough to obtain or implement them and are waiting for the opportunity. For the present, the resources are accumulated. A lot will depend on the relations between Berdymukhammedov and those former influential officials who were imprisoned under Niyazov and who are likely to be released soon under the amnesty. I think that Berdymukhammedov’s positions may get really strong only in half a year.
Eurasian Home: “What foreign policy will Berdymukhammedov pursue? Will his policy be pro-American, pro-European or pro-Chinese? What are Russia’s prospects in Turkmenistan, especially in terms of the “gas issue”? Can Ashgabat change its energy policy to the detriment of Russia’s interests?”
Change of Turkmen foreign policy is the most delicate point when it comes to the reforms. Turkmenistan becomes a pro-Western country, but it tries to maintain the relations with China that were started by Niyazov. Sources claim that Turkey is the active mediator between the West and Turkmenistan, and the USA shows the most interest in Turkmenistan of all the Western states. Washington even orders its European allies not to press Ashgabat with the human rights issues.
I do not know if the Iranian factor or the U.S. intention to contain Russia’s role in transportation of energy resources is more crucial here. But it is evident that Ashgabat, at least, shows its willingness to play this game. And I believe that Moscow’s prospects are not very good since recently Moscow has had neither full-fledged strategy, nor exact information to make decisions. China’s position is much more advantageous. However, this country will have to bear expenses to keep it. On the other hand, in view of the domestic dissension such a pro-Western stand is of danger to the current government and requires that it balance extremely skillfully and confidently. I am not sure if Berdymukhammedov’s retinue can do it.
April 4, 2007
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