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VISIT OF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN TO TURKMENISTAN
VITALY VOLKOV,
Expert of Deutsche Welle (Germany’s International broadcaster)
I would not disparage Russia’s diplomatic success in its struggle for pipeline routes, Russia really succeeded in it. Moscow managed to repulse the West’s attack on the Transcaspian gas pipeline during the energy summit in Poland. For all that, I would not transfer Russia’s political successes to the economic sphere just now.
Firstly, as far as I know, Kurbanghuly Berdymukhammedov and Nursultan Nazarbayev are ready to participate in the so-called diversification of the energy flows.
Secondly, feasibility study of the Russo-Kazakh-Turkmen project on the Caspian gas pipeline still does not exist. Russia is satisfied with this as well as with the fact that Turkmenistan follows Saparmurat Niyazov’s policy and does nothing to give access to its deposits, trustworthy audits have not been carried out.
The next aspect is Uzbekistan’s participation in the game. Since recently this country has competed with Turkmenistan for the gas export. President Islom Karimov was invited to the summit in Turkmenistan, but he refused to come. The moment Turkmenistan moved closer to Russia, Uzbekistan moved closer to China. It happened after the Chinese experts, who came to the country in times of Niyazov, were prohibited from conducting a full-fledged audit. I am not sure that Turkmenistan is a more reliable partner for Russia than Uzbekistan. Recently Tashkent has made much more efforts in order to look for gas than Ashgabat has done.
As regards Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, I believe that the Russian delegation can score a real economic success in the uranium and nuclear energy projects (one should keep the military aspect in mind). Let’s recollect the recent agreements signed between Kazakhstan and Japan in this sphere and note that Russia at the last moment concluded with Kazakhstan the agreement on joint uranium enrichment within the framework of the international center for uranium enrichment. Those steps are of strategic importance, and they are economically grounded.
Neither Turkmenistan nor Kazakhstan will forgo the Transcaspian gas pipeline. It seems to me that Ashgabat regards this as the major element of its “gas blackmail”, while Kazakhstan, which is becomming regional leader, can earn dollars from the so-called multilateral policy. And Nazarbayev will not miss the opportunity. The more so because the Astana emissary visited Poland and the Kazakh Foreign Miniser went to the USA. For all that, I found Nazarbayev’s position on the Western proposals definite enough. This position and that of Berdymukhammedov should be assessed in terms of the world processes.
The USA failed to solve the stabilization problem in Afghanistan and, what is more, now disturbances in Pakistan started. For many years Washington tried to convince Niyazov that the Transafghan pipeline project was promising.
The both Astana and Ashgabat officials realize that the USA and its allies have got bogged down in Afghanistan, Iraq etc. The military interference in Iran is postponed, Washington does not consider Turkmenistan to be an important firing ground any more (the USA does not depend on the Turkmen gas), so in Moscow the Turkmen President yielded to Vladimir Putin’s arguments in a sense.
But Niyazov’s true follower, Berdymukhammedov is not going to give way to Moscow completely, because he knows how to talk to the Kremlin. Promise gas but threaten the Kremlin with an alternative and do with the alternative whatever you do. Here is a simple example: Ashgabat has refused to let the Kremlin journalist Arkady Dubnov go to the country during the visit of Putin, and Russia put up with this as it was before.
Today Turkmenistan cannot be considered a reliable partner. Especially as, according to various signs, the current President’s positions among the elites are not firm, to say nothing of the fact that the people’s living standard remains tragic. Until Russia links the gas trade issues to the distribution of the incomes in Turkmenistan and to the other aspects of Turkmenistan’s social life, it is necessary to take into account that the situation may become strained in Ashgabat at any moment for different reasons. Many experts on this region agree that there is too little information on the amount of gas that has actually been found in Turkmenistan. There is every reason to think that the statement about opening of giant deposits like “Osman” is a pure and simple bluff. The old deposits are said to be becoming empty.
May 15, 2007
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