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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN TURKMENISTAN
VITALY VOLKOV,
«Deutsche Welle», Germany’s international broadcaster
Eurasian Home: “Does acting President of Turkmenistan and presidential candidate Kurbanghuly Berdymukhammedov have a strong position in power? Is he able to assure the consensus of the Turkmen elites? Is the clash of the Turkmen clans possible after the presidential election?”
Berdymukhammedov’s positions are not strong in power. Ambitions of the Turkmen elites are being suppressed by special services that have been working for Berdymukhammedov and his team since Saparmurat Niyazov’s death. The elites realize that whatever they do in the uncertain situation after Niyazov’s death can lead to a disaster, which would be of no use to them, since the living standard in the provinces is extremely bad, and the opposition abroad is waiting for the authorities’ showing their weakness.
So the political consensus consists in consolidating all political forces around one presidential candidate and holding the election. The clashes of the political forces are possible only after the election.
It is known that Berdymukhammedov has already prepared the composition of the Cabinet which includes his relatives and close environs. It is rumored that he tries to break off with head of the presidential security Akmurad Rejepov who controls the military, security and law enforcement agencies. This breaking-off may result in a serious conflict (by the way, many political forces are interested in that). But it is just one of the possible ways to destabilize the situation in the country. This scenario is likely to occur. Within the next few months after the election the conflict potential will be built up in a hidden way.
As regards the turf battle among the Turkmen clans, this factor should not be overestimated, though Niyazov made the clan relations less significant.
The clans will become an important factor when Berdymukhammedov acquires real opponents.
Eurasian Home: “Will there be an attempt to liberalize the political regime after the presidential election? Will an amnesty of the officials convicted under Niyazov and political prisoners be announced?”
Probably, some representatives of the Turkmen establishment intend to liberalize the political regime. Moreover, foreign consultants recommend them to do this. But judging by the authorities’ actions, there will be no political liberalization in the near future. The frontiers are controlled still more strictly, in the provinces the special services keep the people down to prohibit them from uttering at least a word against Berdymukhammedov.
This is understandable. Acting President and his team are afraid of losing control over the events, and they regard the situation in the country as dangerous jungle where each wrong move may lead to death. They are most afraid of the foreign opposition. That explains why the frontiers are closed. The authorities have limited communications with Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
Now Turkmenistan is being peacefully “conquered” by China. I believe that only Chinese specialists know how to work with the closed corruption systems, not to become dependent and at the same time not to violate the rules.
But China is not interested in political liberalization of Turkmenistan.
Eurasian Home: “Will the foreign policy be changed after the election?”
China will be given priority by the Turkmen government. Ashgabat will maintain relations with Turkey and with some political forces of the U.S.A.
On the other hand, Iran, which promises to support Berdymukhammedov in his fight against the “foreign intervention” and opposition, will strengthen its position in Turkmenistan.
There are no signals that the relations with Russia will be changed drastically, but Berdymukhammedov’s team hopes to increase gas price.
I am not sure that Russia would welcome this president, particularly if to take into consideration the fact that he stands high in the White House’s favor.
Summing it up I think that Turkmenistan will continue to try to take advantage of the different interests of the countries, and, as a result, it has a fair chance of coming into a serious crisis.
February 9, 2007
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