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PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN FRANCE
ARNAUD DUBIEN,
Political scientist, Editor-in-chief of the analytical bulletin «Russia Intelligence», Paris
Several days before the presidential election there is much uncertainty. The recent presidential election polls show that about 18 mln voters haven’t made their choice or can still change their mind, which is unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic.
Four presidential aspirants have good chances to get into the second tour: Nicolas Sarkozy from the right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP, in the government since 2002), Segolene Royale from the Socialist Party, Francois Bayrou from the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) and Jean-Marie le Pen (National Front). The first three presidential hopefuls get from 20% to 27% of votes, according to opinion polls.
The candidate from the National Front Jean-Marie le Pen is scoring about 15%, but judging from the previous elections, we can say that le Pen’s potential is usually underestimated.
Starting from autumn 2006 it seemed that the presidential election would become a duel between Segolene Royale nominated from the Socialists in November 2006 and Nicolas Sarkozy. But now it seems that this evident configuration can be easily split by Francois Bayrou. The UDF candidate is positioned as a politician who is able to overcome traditional cleavages and is willing to unite forces of the left and the right. People sympathize with this stance, for Bayrou’s electorate has grown from 6 % in January to 20 % as for the moment. Bayrou has managed to attract those who are discouraged by Segolene Royale and those who haven’t found themselves among the voters of Sarkozy (in particular because of his rigid pro-Atlantic stance). If Bayrou passes to the second tour, chances are high for him to become president.
Image of the “son of the soil” (Bayrou is from the farmers family) and at the same time of the “man of letters” (he is a teacher of literature) helps Bayrou win the heart of France, a country highly attached to its rural identity.
Segolene Royale has to face two challenges: it is necessary to contravene the “Bayrou temptation” perceptible in a part of her electorate and at he same time consolidate the left forces that even together with the Communists, the Green Party and the anti-liberal candidates don’t collect more than 40% of votes.
Nicolas Sarkozy in his turn wants to sound more radical to draw away le Pen’s electorate, risking losing centrist votes in the second tour.
Foreign policy issues are not in the center of the presidential campaign. Segolene Royale was widely criticized and accused of incompetence in the end of 2006 for her rigid stance against the Iran civil nuclear program. But now Royale says that the current developments in the Golf region only make her position more solid. Sarkozy, in his turn, is trying to change his image of the “Washington’s candidate”. His declarations, made several months ago in the White House in which he apologized for his country’s arrogance during the Iraqi affair, aroused indignation in France. Francois Bayrou, disciple of the traditional Christian-Democrat views, stresses the importance of the European project.
As to the French-Russian bilateral relations, we should prepare to certain change whatever the results of the elections. Whoever will be the new French president, relations between France and Russia are most likely to lose personal dimension that it had in times of Jacques Chirac or his predecessor Francois Mitterand, two leaders who belong to the generation of the World War II.
As to the issues that concern directly Russia (enlargement of the NATO, the Nabucco pipeline), Nicolas Sarkozy has the most deep-laid positions. But all the three “great aspirants” agree that Russia’s backsliding on democracy is alerting (the latest reports about police violence against 300 peaceful demonstrators in the center Moscow, and ex-World Chess Champion, now leader of the opposition alliance Garry Kasparov’s arrest haven’t improved the image of the Putin’s regime).
April 20, 2007
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