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EU – UKRAINE
ARNAUD DUBIEN,
Political scientist, Editor-in-chief of the analytical bulletin «Ukraine Intelligence», Paris
An impression of the recent visits of Viktor Yanukovych to Berlin (February 28, 2007) and Viktor Yushchenko to Brussels (March 8-9, 2007) is that the EU – Ukraine relations are at a complete standstill.
The EU is not ready to view Ukraine as a candidate country, since France and Germany, the driving forces behind the European integration, have imposed certain restrictions.
The institutional crisis in the EU, beginning of a new electoral cycle in France, the problem of Turkey’s EU membership that proves that it is better not to give prematurely promises in order not to regret the consequences, are contrary to Ukraine’s EU aspirations.
It has been made clear to Kyiv that the relations between the EU and Ukraine will develop for a long time within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy.
For all that, it does not mean that the EU turns its back on Ukraine as the Russian and Ukrainian mass media often say.
That is indicated by the almost twofold increase in financing Ukraine by the EU, which was officially stated on March 8.
We should bear in mind that Ukraine is located between the EU and Russia and that Ukraine has closer ties with Russia.
The point is whether Ukraine can go through socioeconomic and political modernization without joining the European Union in the near future. The EU officials have not come to terms about it.
The “gas war” between Russia and Ukraine (January 2006) influenced the Europeans despite the fact that the EU leaders took this conflict superficially.
Above all, we came to realize that the EU is vulnerable because it depends on Russia’s energy supplies and that the priority here in Europe should be given to the energy sources diversification with emphasis on the development of the nuclear energy.
In this process Ukraine is considered an important element of the European energy security, but of course, less important than Russia that has vast energy resources.
That’s why the EU reaction to the events of January 2006 was more moderate and restrained than that of the US.
More intense Russian-Ukrainian cooperation in the sphere of energy will not necessarily be taken negatively by any of the EU countries, except, probably, Poland and the Baltic states, provided that this cooperation guarantees stability of energy supplies.
As regards the attitude to Ukraine’s Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, I would say that realist vision starts prevailing among the European bureaucrats as the 2004 presidential election is being erased from memory.
Yanukovych does not delight the Europeans as President Yushchenko used to do at the beginning of 2005. But, as a matter of fact, the EU leaders almost gave up as hopeless the Ukrainian President, who had proved to be a weak strategist.
March 13, 2007
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