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RUSSIA-WEST RELATIONS: A NEW EPOCH HAS COME
SERGEI KARAGANOV,
Chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Deputy Director of Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Dean of School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs, State University — Higher School of Economics, Moscow
There has come a new epoch of the international relations including those between Russia and the West – USA and Western Europe.
The cleavages of the previous period – violation of the security system, breakdown of the system that emerged in the Cold War period, tension growth between the radical Islamites and the other world, conflict between the rich and the poor – have taken up two new ones.
This has happened recently, but is being realized just now. The first change concerns the control over energy resources. Eighty years ago the most of the world energy resources were controlled by the western private oil companies. Now they are controlled by the governments or state-owned companies. As a result, the West and, above all, Europe has felt irresolute and vulnerable.
The second change is likely to be temporary. In the 1990s, when the USSR collapsed, the liberal and democratic capitalism seemed to be triumphing. But during the recent five years the other and competitive trend has appeared, which resulted in the ideological struggle.
I would call this trend the semidemocratic authoritarian capitalism. It is typical of Eastern Asia, China and Russia.
This new trend turned out to be more viable and has been developing more rapidly. It can compete with the old trend, thus challenging the Western democracies.
The situation is worsening because the USA, the pattern of liberal and democratic state, did itself great harm attacking Iraq. The idea of democracy suffered too.
Concerning Europe, it has become less influential because of the identity crisis.
That’s why criticism towards Russia is not an attack, but a counterattack of a weakening West that defends its positions.
This stage will continue for five or six years. Then it will be clear if the trend ceases to exist or is followed by a better one.
The USA will recover its strength while Europe will overcome the “midlife crisis”. Russia will be more realistic in assessing its capacity. At last, instead of the energy conflicts we can get better trends through creating the strategic energy alliance between Russia and EU, between energy suppliers and consumers.
This implies the dramatic strengthening of Europe’s position, which is not in the interest of the U.S. coming out against it.
For the time being we are going through the severe economic and political competition. In this connection, the crucial thing, I would like to warn you against, is the threat of the competition institutionalization and militarization. Such a threat exists, because there are signs of confrontation.
The text is based on Sergei KARAGANOV’s address to the press conference in the Russian Agency of International Information “RIA Novosti” on the subject “Russia-West Relations: A New Epoch Has Come”.
July 11, 2007
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