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NEW ROUND OF THE MINSK-MOSCOW GAS RAW
ANDREY KAZAKEVICH,
Editor-in-chief of “Palitychnaya Sphera” magazine, Minsk
For the moment it is difficult to assess the new round of the gas dispute between Belarus and Russian state-owned gas supplier Gazprom, since there is too much superficial information. In the main, the Belarusian position is that Minsk will seek compromise, carry on negotiations, and the tensions can be eased through making economic or political concessions.
In principle, the Belarusian authorities may propose Russia some of its lucrative assets. The question is to what extent the Belarusian authorities are ready to reduce their control over them. This is the most disputed issue.
The Belarusian top officials may have different opinions here. But these opinions don’t have institutional expression. Recently, Belarus has witnessed purposeful homogenization of its political elite. As a result, the Belarusian government has no organized groups and neither pro-Russian nor pro-European lobby.
This happened because Minsk was trying to replace Russia and Europe with the third countries (Iran, Venezuela) and neighboring countries (Ukraine).
In the end, Belarus has become a closed state. In this situation, the Russian business cannot take advantage of the gas conflict. There are no channels to promote interests in Belarus. The Belarusian government and senior officials must come to agreement with President Lukashenka and his administration about their decisions, while the enterprises depend on the officials. The mass media are ruled by the state and cannot be manipulated. One can influence political parties, but they are excluded from the decision-making process and lack influence.
Because of that closeness, it is hard for Belarus to appeal to Europe as one of the potential affected parties in the gas conflict between Minsk and Moscow. Earlier this leverage could be effective, but now it is restricted and will not be decisive for Gazprom.
August 2, 2007
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