Main page                           
Eurasian Home - analytical resource


NEW ROUND OF THE MINSK-MOSCOW GAS RAW

Print version

ANDREY KAZAKEVICH,
Editor-in-chief of “Palitychnaya Sphera” magazine, Minsk

For the moment it is difficult to assess the new round of the gas dispute between Belarus and Russian state-owned gas supplier Gazprom, since there is too much superficial information. In the main, the Belarusian position is that Minsk will seek compromise, carry on negotiations, and the tensions can be eased through making economic or political concessions.

In principle, the Belarusian authorities may propose Russia some of its lucrative assets. The question is to what extent the Belarusian authorities are ready to reduce their control over them. This is the most disputed issue.

The Belarusian top officials may have different opinions here. But these opinions don’t have institutional expression. Recently, Belarus has witnessed purposeful homogenization of its political elite. As a result, the Belarusian government has no organized groups and neither pro-Russian nor pro-European lobby.

This happened because Minsk was trying to replace Russia and Europe with the third countries (Iran, Venezuela) and neighboring countries (Ukraine).

In the end, Belarus has become a closed state. In this situation, the Russian business cannot take advantage of the gas conflict. There are no channels to promote interests in Belarus. The Belarusian government and senior officials must come to agreement with President Lukashenka and his administration about their decisions, while the enterprises depend on the officials. The mass media are ruled by the state and cannot be manipulated. One can influence political parties, but they are excluded from the decision-making process and lack influence.

Because of that closeness, it is hard for Belarus to appeal to Europe as one of the potential affected parties in the gas conflict  between Minsk and Moscow. Earlier this leverage could be effective, but now it is restricted and will not be decisive for Gazprom.

August 2, 2007




Our readers’ comments



There are no comments on this article.

You will be the first.

Send a comment

Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Expert forum
DOES BELARUS-RUSSIA UNION HAVE A FUTURE?

VALERY FEDOROV, VLADIMIR PETUKHOV

19.02.2007

Intricate integration processes are taking place in the former Soviet Union. And there is a danger that as time goes by and new generation grows up, it will become more and more difficult to solve the problems of reintegration in the post-Soviet space.



Analysis

29.09.2007

BELARUS BRIEF: COSMETIC SURGERY IN BELARUS: TOWARD A NEW REGIME

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis entitled "Cosmetic Surgery in Belarus: Toward a New Regime". In the light of the EU-Russia summit, the analysis offers a new look to the most important post-election development of Belarus.



Author’s opinion on other topics

BELARUS – RUSSIA: THE FUTURE OF THE UNION STATE

14 December 2006

Belarus-Russia Union State has never existed. Since 2002 the Union State bodies have not made any important decisions, they have not achieved any serious breakthroughs.


BELARUSIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS

15 May 2006

The fact, that right after the presidential elections in Belarus the Kremlin has stated that the gas prices will be raised for Minsk, is quite explainable.


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN BELARUS

17 March 2006

The official data indicate that Lukashenka is likely to get between 75 and 85% of votes in the presidential elections. However, the real support for Lukashenka is between 58 and 65%.

 events
 news
 opinion
 expert forum
 digest
 hot topics
 analysis
 databases
 about us
 the Eurasia Heritage Foundation projects
 links
 our authors
Eurasia Heritage Foundation